Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions ahead of a six-pointer in Berlin…
“Hertha and Arminia are locked on 30 points, but Pál Dárdai’s men have a game in hand against lowly Schalke as an insurance policy.”
Weinzierl to start Augsburg reign with a loss
Stuttgart v Augsburg
Friday, 19:30
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Markus Weinzierl is the Bundesliga’s newest managerial appointment, replacing Heiko Herrlich in the Augsburg dugout, and he’ll be hoping to deliver an instant impact. Infogol’s model isn’t convinced, though, favouring Stuttgart to keep out a side averaging just 0.91 xGF per game away from home and not quite safe from relegation as a result.
Leipzig to dent Dortmund’s top four push
Borussia Dortmund v RB Leipzig
Saturday, 14:30
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Borussia Dortmund are back in touching distance of the top four, but they still have work to do to seal the deal. Saturday’s meeting with Leipzig is one of three challenging fixtures for Edin Terzić’s side, and their opponents are unlikely to hold back given their knowledge that victory at Signal Iduna Park would make sure of their own Champions League return. Infogol anticipates a close match, but gives the visitors a slight edge.
Schalke’s away misery to continue
Hoffenheim v Schalke
Saturday, 14:30
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Schalke have just two more opportunities to avoid going an entire season without an away win, and the first of those sees them take on one of the only two sides they’ve beaten in the league this term. Hoffenheim will want revenge for their 4-0 loss in Gelsenkirchen, and are given a 64% chance of doing just that against Dimitrios Grammozis’ men.
Leverkusen to shut out struggling Werder
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayer Leverkusen have averaged just 1.05 xGA per game away from home, and this won’t come as welcome news for a Werder side who have found goals hard to come by all season long. Infogol expects Hannes Wolf’s visitors to hand the home side yet another defeat to keep their relegation worries very much in the forefront going into the final stretch.
Wolfsburg to rebound from Dortmund reverse
Wolfsburg v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Wolfsburg’s Champions League spot remains on shaky ground after a defeat at home to Borussia Dortmund, and Oliver Glasner’s side don’t have the easiest of run-ins. Anything other than a win against Union will leave them looking over their shoulders, but the visitors have won none of their last four on the road and the hosts are tipped to eke out a victory.
Bayern to make their title retention official
Bayern Munich v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30
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With a seven point lead and three games remaining, it would take a minor catastrophe for Bayern Munich not to be crowned champions, but a win on Saturday would confirm it with time to spare. Opponents Gladbach have added an air of respectability to their season of late, ensuring they’ll likely escape a bottom-half finish, but Infogol’s model leans towards a Bayern win this weekend.
Köln to earn another point towards survival bid
Köln v Freiburg
Sunday, 12:30
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Freiburg’s display at the Olympiastadion on Thursday was worrying, with an often blunt Hertha Berlin finding ways to attack at will late on, and this may give Köln confidence against Christian Streich’s team. The hosts are back in the bottom two after Hertha’s win, though, and a win in their last home game was only their second all season, meaning Infogol’s failure to put much between the sides could ultimately see us treated to a draw.
Frankfurt to pip in-form Mainz
Eintracht Frankfurt v Mainz
Sunday, 14:30
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Mainz’s resurgence has continued with four points from home meetings with Bayern Munich and Hertha Berlin, and few would rule them out in Frankfurt. However, the hosts have an unbeaten home league record to preserve, not to mention a top four spot to secure, and Infogol gives the hosts a 47% chance of ending their opponents’ eight-game unbeaten run.
Hertha to best Arminia in six-pointer
Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday, 17:00
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Hertha and Arminia are locked on 30 points, but Pál Dárdai’s men have a game in hand against lowly Schalke as an insurance policy. Infogol favours them to get the better of Sunday’s opponents, having lost to a Reinhold Yabo goal in the reverse fixture, with Arminia’s 0.9 xGF average away from home potentially counting against them in the capital.
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Source: Betfair German
