Bundesliga Correct Score Predictor with Infogol: Tips for every fixture of GW31

RBL to beat managerless Hoffenheim

Hertha Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
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Hertha were disappointing at Dortmund last weekend, but BVB do boast the best defensive record in the Bundesliga according to xG, so we will cut them some slack. Since the restart they have, on the whole, been excellent, especially in their two home games (4.85 xGF). Frankfurt have been very harshly treated by the schedulers, with this being their fourth game in in 11 days after a DFB-Pokal semi final at Bayern Munich in midweek. If their performance against Mainz after a midweek win over Werder Bremen is anything to go by (xG: FRA 0.39 – 3.28 MAI), then they should struggle here. The model thinks Hertha will get the win (40%), but really likes the chances of goals in the capital (64% O2.5, 64% BTTS) – 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [10.0]

Paderborn vs Werder Bremen
Saturday, 14:30
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Paderborn have been tough to beat since the restart, drawing four of their five games, including a 1-1 draw at RB Leipzig last weekend. Though draws aren’t enough to save them they have tightened up defensively though. Werder Bremen continue to be shocking in terms of both actual and expected performances. This is a must-win for them, but in their last 10 league games they have averaged just 0.67 xGF per game. Not going to win too many games playing like that. Paderborn have impressed more than Werder since the break, so they get the nod here to notch a rare win (44% PAD), but don’t expect fireworks against two of the worst attacking teams in the league (53% U2.5, 51% BTTS) – 1-0.

Back the 1-0 @ [14.5]

Wolfsburg vs Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
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Wolfsburg picked up a vital win last weekend in their quest to finish in sixth, rightly beating lowly Werder Bremen. Despite their home results suggesting otherwise, Wolfsburg are a strong home team (1.41 xGF, 1.09 xGA per game). Their attacking numbers have also improved since the restart (1.93 xGF per game), they are a side that is improving. Freiburg picked up a win at home to Borussia Monchengladbach last week, though they should have been a couple down by half time according to xG. They are the biggest over-performers of xG in the league, mainly defensively, with their goal living a charmed life this season (41 conceded, 61.3 xGA). Away from home they allow 2.33 xGA per game, so Wolfsburg should have no issues creating here. The hosts should win (71% WOL), with goals likely (65% O2.5, 54% BTTS) – 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [15.5]

Bayern Munich vs Borussia Monchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30
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Bayern are just two wins from the title after a thumping 4-2 success away at Bayer Leverkusen last weekend, their 15th win in 16 league games. There is no sign of them relenting, and given that they have averaged 2.97 xGF per game since Hansi Flick’s arrival, every Bundesliga team should be scared. That applies in this game, even though they are without Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller. They should still have enough to win this handsomely. This is a big game for Gladbach, as they sit fourth on goal difference only, with Leverkusen to play struggling Schalke on Sunday. Alassane Plea is missing here, as is Breel Embolo, so their options in attack are limited too. Fortunately for the Foals, they have only failed to generate at least 2.0 xGF twice in their last 10 games, so their attacking process is strong, even if defensively they are vulnerable (1.45 xGA per game last 10). Bayern should win here (71%), with another thrilling game in store (62% O3.5, 69% BTTS) – 3-1.

Back the 3-1 @ [11.0]

Mainz vs Augsburg
Sunday, 14:30
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Mainz were one of the more impressive winners last weekend in the Bundesliga, thrashing Frankfurt away from home in what was the perfect performance (xG: FRA 0.39 – 3.28 MAI). They had struggled prior to that game, but their performance was a huge step in the right direction for a team that have no issue creating chances (1.50 xGF per game). Augsburg were unfortunate not to beat FC Koln last weekend in what was a rare game in which they created over 2.0 xGF. On the road though, they are an extremely vulnerable team, allowing 2.1 xGA per away game. Mainz are fancied to make it back-to-back wins (50%), with goals extremely likely in this one (68% O2.5, 67% BTTS) – 2-1.

Back the 2-1 @ [9.6]

Schalke vs Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 17:00
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Schalke picked up their first point since the restart at Union Berlin last weekend, but were hugely flattered to do so, creating next to nothing while allowing a host of big chances (xG: UNI 2.63 – 0.15 SCH). They have averaged just 0.63 xGF per game since the break, a pathetic return. Bayer Leverkusen’s performances have deteriorated since a fast start post-break, with displays against all of Wolfsburg, Freiburg and Bayern Munich disappointing for varying reasons. Bayer have a negative process when playing away from home (1.55 xGF, 1.78 xGA per away game), which may come as a surprise given they have one of the best away records in the league. That shouldn’t hamper them here though against a shocking Schalke team, with the model expecting a high-scoring (55% O2.5, 57% BTTS) away win (48%) – 1-3.

Back the 1-3 @ [11.0]

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Source: Betfair German