Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol Tom Victor provides Bundesliga scoreline predictions as two of last season’s top four go head to head…
“Wolfsburg are the only Bundesliga side with two wins from two, but the visit of a Leipzig side who left the Volkswagen Arena with a 2-2 draw last term could ensure no one has a 100% record after this weekend.”
Dortmund to enjoy home return
Borussia Dortmund v Hoffenheim
Friday, 19:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After a setback on the road last weekend, Dortmund return to Signal Iduna Park and will hope home comforts are enough to help them past unbeaten Hoffenheim. The visitors came within 10 minutes of a win in their last visit, having won comfortably the time before, but Infogol backs Marco Rose’s men after they scored freely under their new manager’s predecessors last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 12.0011/1
Eintracht to get up and running
Arminia Bielefeld v Eintracht Frankfurt
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
An encouraging performance against Augsburg wasn’t enough for Eintracht Frankfurt to pick up a first win, but they’ll hope the wait isn’t prolonged any further. Last season’s meeting brought a 5-1 away win, and Infogol expects Arminia’s unbeaten start to the season to end against Oliver Glasner’s side after some good fortune en route to successive draws, though both sides are expected to find the net.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2
Augsburg to continue wait for league win
Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
While Leverkusen’s 4-0 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach flattered them a little, they can still expect to overpower an Augsburg side still waiting to build up a head of steam after difficulties at the end of last season. Infogol’s model can see Markus Weinzierl’s team getting their first goal of the campaign, but a first victory could be a step too far for a team with just five points from their last nine games, stretching back to April.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 8.007/1
Köln to recover from Bayern disappointment
Köln v Bochum
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
After failing to make their comeback stick at the Allianz Stadium last weekend, Köln have a chance to make amends against Bochum. The hosts are expected to have the upper hand, but they’ll be taking on a side who impressed at home to Mainz to pick up a first win of the season and won nine times on the road en route to last season’s 2. Bundesliga title.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.207/1
Fürth to continue wait for first win
Mainz v Greuther Fürth
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Mainz performed better at home last season than their results might suggest, averaging 1.56 xGF per game, and they won their first game at the newly-renamed Mewa Arena. Back-to-back home wins should be within their grasp against a Fürth side with the worst xGA across the first two games of the season, though the visitors did pick up their first point of the new campaign last weekend.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.4015/2
Stuttgart to win after topsy-turvy start
Stuttgart v Freiburg
Saturday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Stuttgart followed their big opening-day result with a heavy loss in Leipzig last weekend, but Pellegrino Matarazzo will hope that was just a blip despite his team allowing the opposition more than 20 shots on goal. Visitors Freiburg are unbeaten, having pipped Borussia Dortmund in a close game last weekend, but Infogol’s model backs the home side to just about get past their rivals.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
Bayern to cruise against Hertha
Bayern Munich v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 17:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
A 12-0 midweek win in the cup should have erased any lingering doubts about Bayern after a nervy start to the campaign, and winless Hertha won’t be looking forward to their trip to Bavaria. Infogol gives the home side a huge 81% chance of victory, and Hertha may still be getting nightmares about Robert Lewandowski’s four-goal haul – including a last-minute winner – in the corresponding match last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-1 @ 11.5021/2
Gladbach to win in the capital
Union Berlin v Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sunday, 14:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Gladbach’s 4-0 reverse at the BayArena last week didn’t tell the entire story, with the two sides generating comparable shot and xG returns, and Adi Hütter will be keen to show his team hasn’t been too impacted by the reverse. Hosts Union have drawn their first two, with chances for victory in both, but the away side are narrow favourites with Infogol’s model to come away with the points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Wolfsburg’s perfect start to end at home
Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 16:30
Watch on Betfair Live Video
Wolfsburg are the only Bundesliga side with two wins from two, but the visit of a Leipzig side who left the Volkswagen Arena with a 2-2 draw last term could ensure no one has a 100% record after this weekend. Infogol favours the visitors, who generated an impressive 3.03 xGF in their victory over Stuttgart last time out, and this could be a good early guide to which member of last season’s top four is best equipped to repeat the feat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1
Source: Betfair German
