Bavarian rivals to put on a show
Bayern Munich v Augsburg
Sunday 08 March, 14:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
Amidst the controversy over the extraordinary way their win at Hoffenheim ended – the last 13 minutes were played at a snail’s pace after offensive banners were unfurled by Bayern fans criticising Hoffenheim owner Dietmar Hopp – it was almost forgotten that the champions eviscerated a decent team 6-0. Hansi Flick’s league leaders have dropped just two points across the last ten matchdays, and the absence of star striker Robert Lewandowski didn’t upset their rhythm at all.
While I still think the very best teams will be able to expose Bayern’s defensive flaws, no-one can doubt they are one of the most exciting attacking teams in Europe. In their ten competitive matches since the turn of the year, they have banged in 33 goals, and they are the Bundesliga’s top scorers with 71 goals in just 24 outings.
Augsburg have shipped a half-century of goals in the league, which means they have their worst ever defensive record at this stage of a top-flight campaign. Their 3-2 home defeat to Borussia Monchengladbach last weekend highlighted their problems – goalkeeper Tomas Koubek (who has been a liability this term) caused panic for the first goal, FCA coughed up the ball in their own half for the second, and they were undone by a piece of brilliance from Foals’ skipper Lars Stindl for the third.
Augsburg usually play their part in this Bavarian derby, and they held the champions to a 2-2 draw at the WWK Arena earlier this season. However, while I think they may well score, I don’t think their defence will be able to cope with a free-flowing Bayern. An Over 4.5 Goals bet has landed in half of Bayern’s games in 2020, and I think it’ll land here too.
Leipzig worth a look at nearly evens
Wolfsburg v RB Leipzig
Saturday 07 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
With Bayern exerting maximum pressure in the title race, it’s understandable that a few of their rivals should wobble here and there. Leipzig are unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga matches, but three of those have been draws, and last weekend’s 1-1 draw with Bayer Leverkusen certainly wasn’t Die Roten Bullen at their brilliant best.
However, no-one should be panicking at the Red Bull Arena. The club has the edge against out-of-sorts Spurs in the Champions League, and there’s only a three-point gap between Julian Nagelsmann’s team and the leaders.
Wolfsburg are having a fine run, having gone seven games unbeaten in all competitions. That said, if you scratch beneath the surface, it’s not that impressive a sequence. Hoffenheim are the only top-half team they have faced in that time, and two of the games were against Swedish side Malmo in the Europa League.
Leipzig smacked Wolfsburg 6-1 in the cup on their last visit to the Volkswagen Arena, and although their inspirational forward Timo Werner might be missing because of a muscle injury. Nagelsmann has options – he could either partner Patrick Schick with Yussuf Poulsen, or Schick could dovetail with excellent attacking midfielder Christopher Nkunku.
Wolfsburg’s home form is poor (two wins in the last eight in the league) and I’m not convinced this revival of theirs is as good as it looks. Skipper Joshua Guilavogui is injured, and I think that will allow Leipzig to win the midfield battle, especially as key player Konrad Laimer is back from suspension.
I’ll back the visitors to win here at [1.99].
Fortuna to forget cup debacle
Mainz v Fortuna Dusseldorf
Sunday 08 March, 17:00
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
The DFB Cup quarter-finals yielded one of the most amazing stories in the competition’s history, as fourth-division Saarbrucken made it through to the semi-finals, becoming the first team from outside the top three divisions to reach the final four. Goalkeeper Daniel Batz was the hero, saving a penalty in normal time and then four more in the shootout.
For every football story laced with heroism, there is a fall guy, and that was Fortuna Dusseldorf. Their failure to reach the semis was a humiliating disaster, and it followed hot on the heels from an extraordinary collapse in the league against Hertha. Fortuna were 3-0 up by half-time, and dominant for an hour, but they folded in the closing stages and drew 3-3.
However, there is another way to look at this as Uwe Rosler’s men prepare to visit relegation-threatened rivals Mainz. Fortuna have only lost once inside 90 minutes since Rosler replaced Friedhelm Funkel as coach, and they look far more of an attacking threat in recent weeks.
Mainz overcame rock-bottom Paderborn 2-0 last weekend, but there’s no way they should be odds-on here. They’ve only won one of their last six home games, they are very fragile defensively, and a number of high-profile players are becoming increasingly annoyed at their lack of game time.
Fortuna won the reverse fixture 1-0, and I think they can at least avoid defeat here. I’ll lay the hosts at [1.92].
Source: Betfair German
