We’re into the final three matchdays of the Bundesliga season, and Kevin Hatchard has three more selections.
Werder to keep dropping
Werder Bremen v Bayer Leverkusen
Saturday 08 May, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video
Sometimes loyalty and faith are in short supply in football, as panic and the need to placate fans kicks in. Werder Bremen have staunchly resisted the pressure to sack coach Florian Kohfeldt for the last two seasons, despite immense pressure. The northern giants came perilously close to tumbling out of the top flight last term, avoiding automatic relegation on the final day and then coming through a nerve-shredding playoff against Heidenheim.
This season was supposed to be different, with Werder tightening up defensively and lowering their expectations to more realistic and pragmatic levels. For much of the campaign, that modest approach seemed to be working, but the campaign has unravelled in the last couple of months.
A club-record run of seven straight Bundesliga defeats has seen Werder sink into serious trouble, and it’s difficult to know whether last weekend’s agonising DFB Cup semi-final defeat to RB Leipzig (they conceded the winner just seconds from the end of extra time) has boosted or damaged their confidence.
Things seem unlikely to improve this weekend, as a hapless Werder defence faces a Bayer Leverkusen side that’s full of attacking talent. Die Werkself are on course to qualify for the Europa League, and in their last match they swept aside fourth-placed Eintracht Frankfurt 3-1. Hannes Wolf has restored the side’s confidence, and while they still have some issues to work on going forward, they should win a fixture that they won 4-1 last season.
I don’t think Werder can deal with Bayer’s pace and strength in attack, and I’ll back the visitors to win at 1.875/6.
Sancho can light up cup final rehearsal
Borussia Dortmund v RB Leipzig
Saturday 08 May, 14:30
Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
This is a game that plenty riding on it. Dortmund have won their last four league matches, and are pushing hard to qualify for the Champions League. RB Leipzig are trying to keep the title race alive, even though they are seven points adrift of Bayern with three games left. There’s an added dimension, because the teams meet again in Berlin next Thursday in the DFB Cup final.
Dortmund blew Leipzig away in the second half of the reverse fixture, winning 3-1 after a goalless first period. Jadon Sancho played a starring role, scoring and setting up a goal for Erling Haaland. The England international has recently returned from injury, and looked razor-sharp in the 5-0 win over second-tier Holstein Kiel in the cup semi-finals. Sancho also impressed in the 3-3 draw with RB Leipzig last season at Signal Iduna Park, and he seems to enjoy facing Die Roten Bullen.
You can back Sancho to pick up an assist an any time at 7/5 on the Sportsbook, and I think that’s a tempting price. He’s racked up nine assists in the league this season, and he got 16 last term, and 14 the season before.
Hertha ready to continue their rise
Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld
Sunday 09 May, 17:00
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video
It’s been a great week for Hertha Berlin. Having been quarantined after a COVID-19 outbreak, the capital club have taken four points from their first two games since. They clung on for a 1-1 draw at Mainz, and then produced a fine first-half display in a 3-0 win over Freiburg, a result which lifted them out of the bottom three.
Arminia Bielefeld were thrashed 5-0 at Borussia Mönchengladbach last time out, and they looked dead on their feet. A fortnight’s break will have helped them, and they’ll be ready to put in an intense and energetic performance, but it still might not be enough.
Hertha have won three of their last four home games in the league, and they have genuine momentum. A deep and squad means that coach Pal Dardai can make a raft of changes again, and that could give them the edge here. Arminia have scored just one goal in their last three away games, and I suspect their lack of attacking quality is about to catch up with them. Only Schalke have a worse attacking record.
I’ll back Hertha Berlin to win here at 1.9210/11.
Source: Betfair German
