Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund: Bayern to win a thriller

Bayern Munich v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday 23 April, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports and Betfair Live Video

Bayern looking to secure their only glory

It looked like the perfect fit, and ultimately it still might be. Julian Nagelsmann, a boyhood Bayern fan and Bavarian native, taking his dream job. One of the sharpest young tactical minds in world football allied to one of the most powerful clubs in Europe. It was supposed to be the start of a glorious new era of Bayern dominance at home and abroad.

At it has turned out, the reality has been somewhat different. Bayern crashed out of the DFB Pokal 5-0 at Borussia Mönchengladbach, a result that looks even more bizarre when you consider how badly Gladbach have generally played this term. They were humbled home and away by Villarreal in a Champions League quarter-final that never saw Nagelsmann find answers to the questions Unai Emery posed.

Bayern know that victory over Borussia Dortmund this weekend will secure an unprecedented tenth consecutive Bundesliga title, but their season will be over by the end of April, which is a rare situation at the Allianz Arena.

To an extent, Nagelsmann has been a victim of circumstance. Sporting director Hasan Salihamidzic, hamstrung by the financial ravages of the pandemic, has not built a squad to rival the best sides in Europe. Signings like Bouna Sarr, Marc Roca and Omar Richards have failed to make an impact, and look well short of the level required by a club that aims for domestic and continental glory every season.

Of course, you can get away with having a thin squad if your stars stay fit, but COVID-19 has taken its toll. Tenacious midfielder Joshua Kimmich was hit hard by the virus and his recovery was slow, while rampaging left-back Alphonso Davies developed a heart inflammation after his brush with the virus. Add in contract controversy regarding Robert Lewandowski, Serge Gnabry, Thomas Müller and Manuel Neuer, and you can see why Nagelsmann’s first campaign has been an uphill battle.

Bayern have still been the best side in the Bundesliga by a distance. They have the best attack and the best defence, not just in reality but also according to the underlying data. They have won 23 of their 30 matches, they shredded Bayer Leverkusen 5-1 and have secured two competitive wins apiece against Borussia Dortmund and RB Leipzig. Lewandowski is the league’s top scorer with 32 goals, 12 clear of closest rival Patrik Schick.

Corentin Tolisso is definitely out with injury, while Kingsley Coman is a doubt. Thomas Müller is expected to start after shaking off a knock.

Dortmund facing another rebuild

If Bayern lift another meisterschale, Borussia Dortmund will once again be left to rue another one that got away. Bayern’s off-field issues meant they were there to be attacked, but BVB haven’t had the consistency or the strength of character to truly test the champions, and questions remain over whether coach Marco Rose really is the right man for the job.

There are mitigating factors. The club has been plagued by injuries throughout the campaign. Gio Reyna has barely played at all, and star striker Erling Haaland has only been able to make 17 league starts in 30 matchdays. Thomas Meunier, Dan Axel-Zagadou and Raphael Guerreiro have all missed plenty of games with injuries, and it’s been difficult for Rose to have a settled side.

That said, there have been too many careless mistakes in games, and too many feeble performances. Dortmund crumbled in Lisbon in a decisive Champions League game against Sporting, they were outfought and outplayed by Rangers in the Europa League, and they lost their grip on the DFB Pokal because they lost to second-tier St. Pauli. This was underachievement on a grand scale.

With Haaland close to certain to leave, and other players reaching the end of the road, thoughts turn to next season. Jude Bellingham is expected to have a leadership role (not the captaincy, but expect him to wear the armband at some stage soon), Germany defenders Niklas Süle and Nico Schlotterbeck could form a new-look defence in front of the excellent Gregor Kobel, and Salzburg speedster Karim Adeyemi will join the club if a transfer fee can finally be agreed after months of wrangling.

Keeper Kobel is out with a ligament injury, which is a huge blow. Mats Hummels, Mahmoud Dahoud, Gio Reyna and Thomas Meunier are all out of action. Haaland is expected to start in attack, despite his recent struggles with ankle and foot injuries.

Bayern are worthy favourites

Bayern have won their last six competitive games against Dortmund, including two victories at Signal Iduna Park already this season. In Munich they are completely dominant when it comes to this fixture, winning the last eight meetings at the Allianz Arena. In their last six home matches against BVB, Bayern have racked up goal tallies of two, six, five, four, three and four.

There’s little point backing Bayern outright at 1.412/5, when we can use the Sportsbook’s Bet Builder to boost the price. You could back Bayern to win and Over 3.5 Goals at 2.26/5, which has paid out in their last five meetings with Dortmund. Instead, I’ll go for Bayern to win at both teams to score at evens, which has also paid out in their last five competitive clashes.

Lewandowski and Haaland can shine

Robert Lewandowski loves playing against his old club Dortmund. He has racked up 13 goals in his last seven games against them, and stretching further back he has found the net 26 times in 25 meetings.

Erling Haaland has scored five goals in six games against Bayern, and returned to form with a brace in last weekend’s 6-1 win over Wolfsburg. He has 18 goals in 20 league games this term, and I think he can score.

You could back both Lewandowski and Haaland to score here on the Bet Builder at 2.9215/8, but I’ll use the new Score or Assist market here. If both Lewandowski and Haaland each register either a goal or an assist in the game, we get combined odds of 2.427/5, which is only half a point worse off than backing them both to score.