Tuesday’s football props column has a 7/5 player shots bet which has landed 15 times out of 21 so far this season.
“In his 21 starts for OM this season, he’s hit 3+ on 15 occasions, including the last five.”
Lyon v Marseille
Tuesday 1 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1 and Betfair Live Video
This is the restaging of a fixture initially played – or at least started – in November, one which was abandoned when Marseille’s Dimitri Payet was struck by a bottle thrown from the crowd.
While the possibility of bad blood remains over that incident – Payet is 7/2 to be shown a card – it had nothing to do with the two sets of players and with no fans allowed in this time, the card markets aren’t for me.
However, there’s a decent bet to be had in the shots markets where Cengiz Under has regularly delivered for his backers on the 3+ shots line.
The Turk got limited chances on loan at Leicester last season but he finished it having had at least three shots in 12 of his 13 starts for club and country.
His move to Marseille has rejuvenated his career and the shots have continued to rain in on the opponents’ goal. In his 21 starts for OM this season, he’s hit 3+ on 15 occasions, including the last five.
He’s out at 7/5 here for a repeat and that looks too big to miss.
Of course, the opposition always needs to be taken into account but a deeper look fails to put me off.
Marseille will go second with a win here but Lyon sit down in 11th.
Only three sides in Ligue 1 have conceded more shots than Lyon this season, while they will be seriously depleted for this contest.
Key defender Jason Denayer is injured, as are Moussa Dembele and Houssem Aouar. Tino Kadewere and Damien Da Silva, another centre-back, are suspended, while Karl Toko Ekambi is away on international duty.
In addition, they’ve just sold star man Bruno Guimaraes to Newcastle and the men brought in prior to the transfer deadline, Tanguy Ndombele and Romain Faivre, are ineligible.
Admittedly Marseille are missing three themselves due to international call-ups but Under looks set to start.
Against this line-up, he should get himself into dangerous areas and once there he’s not afraid to try his luck.
One final boost to the bet is that Under played in a more central role against Montpellier at the weekend and duly delivered six shots.
It was a more experimental line-up in the Coupe de France and the likelihood is Under will be back in a wider position on Tuesday night but boss Jorge Sampaoli certainly has been afraid to shuffle his players around mid-match this season and this could easily help land this odds-against shot, one which could easily be odds-on.
For those seeking bigger prices, the higher shots lines are worth considering. 4+ is 7/2, 5+ 9/1 and a repeat of the weekend’s 6+ can be backed at 25/1.
Source: BetFair French
