This week’s Saturday cheat sheet starts on Friday night at the Emirates so get our experts’ best bets for action in the Premier League, Championship, Serie A and much more…
“I actually think De Bruyne has been keener to get forward and into shooting positions recently than in previous seasons and that could bode well for us. He’s 12/5 to score and that will do just fine.”
Arsenal 2.01/1 v Aston Villa 4.216/5, the Draw 3.7511/4
Friday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
It’s Friday night at the Emirates for the Gunners as they try to return to winning ways against a Villa team that have lost two in a row.
Kevin Hatchard says: “Arsenal were poor on Monday, despite making an excellent start, and although they have won five of their last eight home matches, I have to oppose them at 1.9720/21. Arteta’s men have found Villa a difficult match-up in recent games, and I’m not convinced by their recent revival. It’s also worth noting that Villa have had an extra two days of recovery time.
“Despite Villa’s defensive deficiencies, I’ll lay the hosts here.
“Arsenal’s inconsistency in front of goal has probably inflated the price of Over 2.5 Goals to 1.9310/11, but I fancy we’ll see an entertaining clash here. Seven of Villa’s last eight PL away games have featured three goals or more. Although many of the historical clashes aren’t hugely relevant, it’s a weird statistical quirk that the last 11 competitive meetings between these two in North London have featured three goals or more.”
Kevin’s bet: Lay Arsenal at 1.9720/21
Cardiff 2.568/5 v Middlesbrough 3.185/40, the Draw 3.211/5
Saturday, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Football
Cardiff are looking end a run of seventh successive defeats when they host a Boro side that won in midweek.
Mark O’Haire says: “Both of last season’s meetings between Cardiff and Middlesbrough concluded in 1-1 draws. Those two stalemates extend an impressive recent run for the Bluebirds over Boro, with the Welsh outfit now suffering a solitary reverse in eight recent head-to-head meetings (W5-D2-L1). City have returned W4-D1-L1 against the Teessiders here over the past 10 years.
“Cardiff 2.568/5 early season promise has given way since late August as the Bluebirds have suffered eight league losses in nine and are looking to avoid eight defeats on the bounce. Mick McCarthy’s charges are underperforming against expectations and underlying metrics and it’s believed this is the manager’s last chance to arrest the club’s concerning slide.
“Middlesbrough 3.1085/40 have collected three successive 2-0 triumphs at the Riverside in their most recent four fixtures to move into the top-half of the Championship. Warnock has been battling a long injury list in recent weeks, yet Boro have remained reasonably competitive. However, the Teessiders have toiled on their travels (W1-D2-L3) thus far.”
Mark’s bet: Back Cardiff 0 on the Asian Handicap at 1.804/5
Leipzig will be confident of continue their climb up the Bundesliga when they host the German top flight’s bottom club.
Tom Victor says: “Despite their struggles in Europe, Leipzig have found some form domestically – especially at Red Bull Arena, where Jesse Marsch’s side have nine points and an average of 2.5 xGF per game.
“That run should continue with few obstacles against a Fürth side with the league’s second-worst away xGA return and 13 in the goals against column on their travels, and the RBL front-line will be licking their lips ahead of the meeting.”
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Tom’s bet: Back the 3-1 @ 10.5019/2
Sassuolo 1.618/13 v Venezia 6.05/1, the Draw 4.47/2
Saturday October 23, 17:00
Live on BT Sport 2
It’s one win in seven for Sassuolo but their visitors haven’t been much better of late, so this represents a prime opportunity for the hosts.
Chloe Beresford says: “Some poor recent results for Sassuolo have led to them slipping down the Serie A table, but also mean they have begun to represent good value in the betting markets. The Neroverdi are undoubtedly one of Italy’s better teams, yet a loss to Inter and a surprising draw at Genoa mean they occupy 14th place ahead of this weekend’s matches.
“Another factor is Venezia’s unexpected victory at home against Fiorentina on Monday night, a result that pushed them level on points with Sassuolo and just one spot below them in the standings. There have been under 2.5 goals in each of Venezia’s last four matches, while only one of Sassuolo’s home games so far this season has seen them hit the over in this market.”
Chloe’s bet: Sassuolo v Venezia: Back Sassuolo to win and under 2.5 goals @ 4.3310/3.
Brighton 9.28/1 v Man City 1.434/9, the Draw 5.14/1
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League
The champions were beaten by Brighton when the teams last met and, with the Seagulls fourth in the table, is there any chance of a repeat?
Jamie Pacheco says: “At 13/10, you can back City to win to nil. With just three goals conceded all season, the Citizens are one of the few sides to have conceded fewer than Brighton, meaning things have been pretty tight at the back this season.
“City’s 16 goals this season have been pretty well distributed. Eleven different players have scored but no-one has got more than two. Those with two so far are: Gabriel Jesus, Kevin de Bruyne, Bernardo Silva and the injured Ferran Torres.
“The one to go with may be De Bruyne. He didn’t score on Tuesday but he was taken off after 64 minutes, a tell-tale sign that he’s in line to start this one. He’s now scored in his last two league games to go with a goal in the League Cup.
“I actually think he’s been keener to get forward and into shooting positions recently than in previous seasons and that could bode well for us. He’s 12/5 and that will do just fine.”
Jamie’s bet: Back Man City to win to nil @ 2.35/4
Villarreal lost for the first time last weekend and now face a tough-looking trip to Athletic Bilbao.
Tom Victor says: “Athletic remain impressive at San Mamés, where they are averaging 1.93 xGF this season, though opponents Villarreal escaped with a point when the teams last met back in February.
“Unai Emery’s visitors will have less of a rest, thanks to their midweek trip to Switzerland in the Champions League, and Infogol’s model makes the home side favourites to claim a victory which would make it back-to-back defeats for the away side after a seven-game unbeaten league start.”
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Tom’s bet: Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1
Source: BetFair French
