Charlie Mullan has studied the data from Europe’s top five leagues to highlight the best bets to help you with your acca this weekend…
“Thursday’s 3-2 defeat at Roma was the 14th time this season that a United game produced five goals or more. Villa’s last five games have seen three or more goals scored”
Goals expected as United visit Villa Park
Manchester United’s congested fixture list takes them to Villa Park on Sunday. United’s defeat at Roma on Thursday night was the first of five games in 13 days as they look to finish the season second in the Premier League and winners of the Europa League.
Thursday’s 3-2 defeat in Rome was the 14th time this season Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side were involved in a game with five goals or more. Over 2.5 goals, which has paid out in Aston Villa’s last five league games, is available at 7/10 this weekend.
At this stage last season, Villa stared relegation in the face, but turned things in the nick of time to stay up. Dean Smith’s team are 21 points better off after 33 games this season and are safe so they can approach this game with an attacking philosophy, even if Jack Grealish sits out for the 12th successive league game.
Villa Park has been a happy hunting ground for United who are unbeaten in their 21 visits since Alan Hansen famously said: “You can’t win anything with kids” after Villa beat a youthful United 3-1 in August 1995. Since then, United have won 14 and drawn seven times against Villa on their home ground.
Bayern to secure title in style
Champagne has been on ice in Bavaria for a number of weeks and while there is no Champions League final for Bayern Munich to prepare for this season, a ninth successive Bundesliga title is still worth celebrating.
A shock 2-1 defeat at Mainz last weekend merely delayed Bayern’s latest coronation which should be secured against Borussia Monchengladbach at the Allianz Stadium. Robert Lewandowski’s last minute consolation goal last weekend extended Bayern’s incredible run of league and cup games with at least one goal to 68.
These two sides tend to go toe-to-toe with each other which has produced some thrilling games in recent times. The last seven encounters, all in the Bundesliga, have produced a total of 29 goals with over 2.5 goals paying out in all seven. Over 2.5 goals is available at 2/7 this weekend.
Monchengladbach may be invited to Bayern’s latest championship party, but they have their own agenda. They are currently four points off a place in Europe next season and with games running out, defeat could end their hopes especially if Bayer Leverkusen can win at struggling Werder Bremen.
Marco Rose’s side have won just one of their last eight away games, but an early goal could swing momentum their way. Monchengladbach have scored five goals before the 27th minute in their last three league games.
Struggling Huesca to show caution at Cadiz
La Liga is the only one of the top five leagues in Europe yet to see a team relegated. Huesca cannot be relegated this weekend, but defeat at Cadiz will weaken their survival hopes. The small club from the Pyrenees are hoping the mountain they have to climb to safety does not get any bigger after the latest round of fixtures.
Huesca head to Cadiz one point behind Alaves and Valladolid who are battling for their lives just as much as Juan Jose Rojo Martin’s side are. With so much at stake, this could be a low-scoring game where one goal could be enough to win all three points.
Cadiz won the first meeting this season 2-0 which was the seventh successive league meeting between the two sides that paid out on under 2.5 goals which is available this weekend at 4/7.
The home side are not safe just yet, but it would take an extraordinary sequence of events for them to drop out of the league. They are currently 10 points clear of the bottom three with four games left. In the coming weeks, there promises to be plenty of twists with six points separating Valencia in 14th and Elche in 19th.
Fiorentina host lethal and leaky Lazio
Lazio have been one of the most entertaining teams to watch recently in Europe’s top five leagues. Their last four matches have produced a total of 25 goals with three of those four contests seeing a minimum of seven goals scored. Their match-up at Fiorentina should appeal to Simone Inzaghi’s side as the hosts have seen 20 total goals scored in their last five Serie A games.
Inzaghi’s team have won the last three league meetings with Fiorentina by the same 2-1 score including Lazio’s trip to Florence last season when Ciro Immobile scored the winner. Immobile is looking to score against Fiorentina for the sixth successive game. Over 2.5 goals looks a solid bet in this contest and can be backed at 6/10.
Fiorentina continue to look over their shoulders at the wrong end of the table. A gap of four points is all that is between them and Benevento who occupy the final relegation place. Cesare Prandelli’s side have scored in their last 10 league games while Lazio have found the net in their last nine.
Strasbourg and Montpellier to share goals
Montpellier’s form in recent weeks may be described as inconsistent, but the one thing that has been consistent is the frequency in which they have been involved in games where both teams have scored.
BTTS has paid out in 13 of their last 14 league games including their last eight. A struggle to keep clean sheets will see Michel Der Zakarian’s side finish in no man’s land in Ligue 1.
Both teams to score has landed in Strasbourg’s last six Ligue 1 games including their 1-1 draw at Marseille last weekend where they led 1-0 with four minutes to play. Both teams to score is certainly a bet worth considering in this fixture and is priced 4/6.
There is more riding on this game for Strasbourg who find themselves 16th in the standings four points clear of the drop. One win in their last seven has seen Thierry Laurey’s side slip closer to the relegation zone.
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The fivefold pays out at just over 98/1 on the sportsbook (correct at the time of publication)
Source: BetFair French
