Man City v Liverpool: Go for early goals at Wembley

Man City v Liverpool
FA Cup semi-final
Saturday 16 April, 15:30 kick-off
Live on BBC One

City still treble hunting

The big games just keep on coming for Man City and despite them drawing their last two matches against Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, those results have seen them increase their chances of winning the Premier League and Champions League.

City are now seven pretty easy looking games from the title, they’ve got a Champions League semi-final against Real Madrid and now an FA Cup semi-final against Liverpool. They’re favourites for all three competitions and now just 6/1 for the treble.

Is Man City vs Liverpool the greatest rivalry in English football history?

Pep Guardiola shares his view pic.twitter.com/R0MZtb4gOK

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) April 10, 2022

It’s just the third time the top two in the league have played an FA Cup semi-final – Chelsea beating Tottenham in 2017 and Man Utd’s famous win over Arsenal in their treble season of 1999 – could that be an omen for the blue half of Manchester?

City are certainly experienced at this stage of the competition with Pep Guardiola’s side making the semis for the fifth time in the last six years, although they have lost the last three on the spin, so will be keen to go a step further this year.

Liverpool facing City battle for trophies

Jurgen Klopp’s side are 15/8 second favourites for the FA Cup behind Man City, and Liverpool will have to get through Guardiola’s side a couple more times if they’re to convert odds now of 14/1 for what would be an incredible quadruple.

The two cup competitions offer better chances than the league but City are likely to stand in their way for both as along with this Wembley date they’re fancied to meet in the Champions League final should the Reds beat Villarreal in the semis.

Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City vs Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool pic.twitter.com/GwULEKdTnb

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) April 10, 2022

Liverpool have won eight of their last 10 FA Cup semi-finals but their new Wembley form isn’t the best with just one 90 minutes victory in eight games in the new national stadium. The Reds had won more games at the old Wembley (15) than anyone else.

Klopp will make more changes but has been rotating his side a lot with big games coming every few days now – and with good memories of beating Chelsea on penalties in the Carabao Cup final he’ll hope to start making the new Wembley the kind of fortress the old Wembley was for Liverpool.

Another draw on the cards?

Man City are slight favourites at 2.6413/8 to win in 90 minutes with Liverpool 2.942/1 and the draw 3.45 – which will be a popular bet given three of the last four meetings have ended all square. The Reds have also drawn four of their last six games at Wembley.

The tie has to be settled on the day so extra time and penalties will be taken if needed – and it’s gone to spot kicks the last two times these two have met at Wembley, with City winning both the 2016 League Cup final and the 2019 Community Shield.

Either team to win on pens is 6.05/1 – the same price as it is for either side to grab an extra time winner.

Goals are usually in large supply with nine of the last 12 seeing both teams score and 10 of those 12 containing over 2.5 goals. Seven meetings in the last 12 have actually gone over 3.5.

Both teams to score here is understandably short at 1.574/7 and over 2.5 goals skinny as a result at 1.768/11. Over 3.5 has paid out in five of the last six so could be the play at 2.8815/8.

Both sides set for Changes

Both squads are so good now that changes don’t actually lower the quality of the teams so there should be two strong starting XIs running out at Wembley – with Guardiola’s big decision being whether to give Kevin De Bruyne a break after three tough games in a week.

Phil Foden also started both games so £100m Jack Grealish could be in line for a start along with Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus, going on recent selections.

Jesus is 3.613/5 to score against the Reds again while Sterling gave them problems last Sunday and is 3.55/2 to score a second Wembley goal against his former side having previously scored in the Community Shield meeting between the two.

Klopp should restore Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane to the starting XI after they started on the bench against Benfica – while Diogo Jota played just under an hour so could again start in the same front three deployed at the Etihad.

It’s just one penalty scored in nine games for Salah in what is a serious goal drought by his incredible standards, so you could say he’s due a goal and has a decent record of seven goals in 13 games against City, along with four assists.

Salah is 2.56/4 anytime scorer here while 3.02/1 shot Mane has scored in both games against City this season, Jota is always a threat in big games and is 3.613/5 and also watch out for Luis Diaz at 3.7511/4 who will see some action at some stage.

Diaz is a live runner for last goalscorer at 8.515/2 as Klopp will use his subs and on that Wembley pitch he’ll be a big danger regardless of the game situation.

On the Bet Builder front – Sterling and Salah both to score forms a nice 9.08/1 double, while if you throw in another draw then that rockets the price up to a tasty 2928/1.

We should get another full-blooded encounter and although changes will be made and substitutes use it shouldn’t dilute the quality on show and both teams will be going all-out for the win. The last thing either side needs is extra time, even if they can’t help but draw recently.