FA Cup Tips: The best bets following the third round draw

“If they can stay injury free, then West Ham are well placed to go on a good run and – like Leicester in last season’s competition – see their excellent league campaign rewarded with silverware in May.”

Two-time FA Cup winner Steven Gerrard takes Aston Villa to Old Trafford to face Manchester United in the pick of the FA Cup third round ties.

Most of England’s biggest teams avoided tough draws, and surprisingly there were only three all Premier League matches drawn out of the hat, the other two being West Ham v Leeds United and Leicester City v Watford – which will see Claudio Ranieri travel back to the King Power Stadium.

It isn’t, in truth, the most exciting set of fixtures. Nottingham Forest against Arsenal is certainly one that catches the eye, while the magic of the FA Cup means it is worth paying attention to the five non-league sides still in the draw.

Among those, undoubtedly the biggest game is Chelsea versus Chesterfield. Yeovil Town will be pleased to have been drawn at home to Bournemouth, and there is some potential for a shock there, while the winner of tonight’s match between Boreham Wood and St Albans City host League One AFC Wimbledon.

The lowest-ranked team left in the competition, Kidderminster Harriers, host a Reading side languishing near the bottom of the Championship. That one clearly has potential, and is likely to be picked for TV along with the Man Utd, Chelsea, and Nottingham Foret ties.

Villa’s trip to United has feeling of a classic

There was a time when these two seemed to face each other in the third round every year. They met at this stage in 2002, 2004, 2007 and 2008, a hapless sequence for the Villans who were beaten on all four occasions – most notably in 2002, when Man Utd came back from two goals down to win 3-2 at Villa Park in a match that, implausibly enough, was 0-0 at half-time.

Three goals in the space of six minutes during the final quarter of an hour, one by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and a brace from Ruud van Nistelrooy, set the tone for a decade of frustration for Villa.

But this time the story centres on the man in the Villa dugout. One of Gerrard’s most iconic Liverpool goals was in the 2006 FA Cup final and next month’s game, his first in the competition as a manager, is fittingly romantic. It certainly won’t be easy.

Ralf Rangnick should be settled in the Man Utd job by then, and even if he makes a few changes following the end of the gruelling winter schedule the hosts ought to come out on top. Villa and United have 19 FA Cup trophies between them. This is a glamorous tie with plenty of history and plenty of old rivalry rekindled.

Forest could cause the biggest upset

When looking for potential shock results, the biggest indicator is a team one division below in superior form to the Goliath above them. That will plausibly be the case when another two of English football’s most prestigious teams go head-to-head in the third round.

Arsenal are likely to slow down over the difficult Christmas period. They have looked brittle at the best of times, often withdrawing when the going gets tough, and Mikel Arteta generally struggles to get good results without his best 11 on the pitch. Consequenty heads may have dropped a little by January.

By contrast Forest have lost just one of their last 13 matches and after a rocky start look likely to put up a challenge for a play-off spot. They might, then, face Arsenal in the FA Cup at just the right moment to take a major scalp.

Ranieri back to Leicester should be high scoring

Ranieri has already had one emotional return to the King Power, when Watford were beaten 4-2 in an entertaining game at the end of November. Nevertheless the narrative interest of Ranieri and Leicester suggests this one will be on TV, especially since it is one of just three all-Premier League encounters.

Like the last meeting, it should see plenty of goals. Leicester continue to look hopelessly naive defending set-pieces and are making numerous individual errors at the back, a problem Brendan Rodgers is unlikely to solve during the Christmas run when training sessions are rarely held. Consequently Watford’s explosive counters, led through Emmanuel Dennis, should be fruitful.

But Ranieri has done nothing to improve the Watford defence and James Maddison, who scored once and assisted twice when the teams last played, is back in his groove. We can look forward to an end-to-end game here.

Draw does little to alter outright odds

It is unfathomable that Swindon Town, Chesterfield, or Shrewsbury will beat Manchester City, Chelsea, or Liverpool respectively and there is no doubt these three remain the favourites to lift the FA Cup this season, such has been their strength in the Premier League in 2021/22.

There is almost nothing between Man City 4.67/2, Chelsea 7.06/1 and Liverpool 7.87/1 and it does seem likely that one of these three will lift the trophy. However, West Ham 25.024/1 are a good outside bet thanks to their excellent performances under David Moyes and their tendency to perform well against the bigger teams.

The Hammers have already beaten Chelsea and Liverpool in the Premier League this season. If they can stay injury free, then West Ham are well placed to go on a good run and – like Leicester in last season’s competition – see their excellent league campaign rewarded with silverware in May.