Dons can come away with a win and a clean sheet
Barnet v MK Dons
Sunday 29th November, kick-off 13:30
Live on BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport website
It’s the MK Dons for me again this week, and it seems like we’re in Groundhog Day with Russell Martin and the Bucks club. A tweet had gone around prior to Tuesday’s 2-2 home draw against Shrewsbury with Martin urging his team to cut out the early goals. They kicked off at 19:00 and by 19:02 they had gone a goal behind.
It seems the first 10-15 minutes is the problem area alongside the final third – although the Dons’ boss will be pleased his team converted their hefty possession stats into a couple of goals.
MK Dons are drawing too many games this season in short, and they’ve collected five in total now. In terms of a bet, my first impression was to play on the Draw for this, Barnet are hardly in rude health in the National League and are quite rightly about 6.05/1 and are not screaming to be backed.
The Bees now play at the Hive, which is a shame, as I live about two minutes away from the charismatic old Underhill ground and remember working with Barnet when the likes of Darren Currie crafted pass after pass down the wing, marshalled at the back by the rock Greg Heald with John Still as boss. I watched them on a regular basis in midweek and they had some excellent teams.
Currie really was a good player at that level. A personal favourite.
Unfortunately, the north Londoners are struggling a bit this term in the National League, and whilst they beat Burton in the FA Cup first round, their league form hasn’t got going at all and they earned a scrappy point against Hartlepool in midweek. Conceding goals has been a problem for Peter Beadle’s side, and they’ll face a lot of pressure from a team that is likely to have about 70% of the ball. Are they good enough to withstand?
MK Dons made five changes in their first-round tie with Eastleigh (a game they won on penalties having been held 0-0), so Martin could stick or twist again and we have that poser to deal with. Therefore that 1.705/7 price on the away win is too short, so I’d rather have a go at MK Dons to win 0-1 and 0-2 on the Correct Score markets.
KEY OPTA STATS: MK Dons have never lost against non-league opposition in the FA Cup W10 D3, whilst Barnet have reached the third round of the FA Cup just once in their previous 12 attempts.
Back the Tigers to secure passage to next round with ease
Stevenage Borough v Hull City
Sunday 29th November, kick-off 13:30
Live on BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport website
I need to start with a caveat emptor of sorts, as Hull have only lost two games on the road all season in League One – and on both occasions I have tipped them. The defeats to Fleetwood (4-1) and Swindon (1-0) however do not detract from a sparkling start to life back in the third tier. I’m still not quite sure what happened in that Fleetwood game.
Hull are currently top with 30 points and hold the best goal difference. They easily beat fellow title contenders Ipswich on Tuesday night 0-3. Like many teams in League One, they picked up the points without dominating possession. It’s what they are doing in the final third that counts, and their three goals in midweek came from Josh Magennis, Tom Eaves and Mallik Wilks – which represents some serious firepower at this level.
Hull are best on the counter-attack and manager Grant McCann is a cute tactician who is dealing with the pressure well. They press high and are very organised at the back, so it’s understandable we are getting nothing better on the Exchange than 1.748/11. It’s the age-old question about backing odds-on away from home.
Stevenage haven’t won in their last six FA Cup ties and have failed to score in four of them, which hardly provokes an interest in backing the hosts at 4.77/2.
Anyway, survival in League Two looks the most important task, as Alex Revell’s men had a rotten October where they barely scored a goal (seven blanks). They arrested the horror run of 11 games without a win on Tuesday night with a scrappy 2-1 success against Port Vale, but that was very nervy.
The obvious play here is to use Hull to Win To Nil, but we could get a bit more value in playing the Tigers on the Asian Handicap as I think they’ll be good for a couple of goals in this.
KEY OPTA STAT: Hull have progressed from eight of their last nine FA Cup ties against sides from a lower division.
Goals on the cards at Brunton Park
Carlisle United v Doncaster Rovers
Sunday 29th November, kick-off 13:30
Live on BBC iPlayer and BBC Sport website
Doncaster were one of my tips in the first round and breezed past the Asian -2.5 Handicap to secure a 1-5 victory at FC United of Manchester, but they really can be a Jekyll and Hyde team – with the prime piece of evidence from Tuesday night. Rovers went 0-2 down at Blackpool in the first-half, but produced an astonishing comeback after the break to win the game 3-2.
Darren Moore’s team sit in 10th position in League One, and I think they are better than that. But it’s a young side and that explains the rather inconsistent profile at the moment.
They’ve won two away and lost the same amount of games.
I’m familiar with Carlisle boss Chris Beech from his days as Keith Hill’s No.2 for years at Rochdale. Beech is doing a good job at Brunton Park with United poised in sixth with a fine home record (five victories).
Beech will be aware that Doncaster have a habit of going behind in matches. In six of their last seven they have conceded first, so Carlisle will need to press on the front foot inside the first 20 minutes for a platform.
It’s why I am leaning towards goals, as the hosts are averaging over two per game at home in League Two this season and have hit a trio of sides for three. If they go hard early, the game could open up. I also believe Doncaster are better on the counter, and they could produce a performance akin to the second 45 against Blackpool.
My bet here is using the SAME GAME MULTI on the Sportsbook. We can double up Over 2.5 and Doncaster to win to get 2/1.
Source: Betfair FA cup
