Liverpool are not conceding in the first-half of games and that’s part of Dan Fitch’s Bet Builder strategy, as he picks out selections for Wednesday’s Champions League last-16 ties.
Inter 3.711/4 v Liverpool 2.1211/10; The Draw 3.7511/4
Wednesday 16 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
The pick of Wednesday’s Champions League ties sees the Serie A title holders Inter hosting Liverpool.
Inter are currently involved in a fierce, three-way title race in Italy. Second in the Serie A table, Inter are a point behind their local rivals AC Milan. At the weekend they drew 1-1 with third placed Napoli, who trail Inter by a point.
Now they must turn their attention to the Champions League and one of the most in-form teams in Europe. Liverpool have some catching up to do in the Premier League title race, but that is more to do with the excellence of the leaders Manchester City, than any shortcomings on their part.
Jurgen Klopp’s team won 1-0 at Burnley over the weekend, which leaves them nine points behind Manchester City with a game in hand. Winning the Premier League is now a tough ask with very little room for error, but Liverpool are already through to the final of the EFL Cup, are still in the FA Cup and unlike Manchester City, have experience of winning the Champions League, which could prove vital in the coming months.
Liverpool will hope that experience counts for something in this tricky away leg. Winning at the San Siro could be tough, but there’s every reason to think that Liverpool will avoid defeat, with Inter having drawn with Napoli and lost to AC Milan, when they’ve come up against strong opposition in recent weeks.
So the starting point for this Bet Builder will be for Liverpool to avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 1/4 on the Sportsbook. Mohamed Salah averages 3.9 shots-per-game, so adding him to have one or more shot on target, at odds of 1/8, seems a safe addition.
Finally we will add ‘No’ in the both teams to score in the first-half market, at a price of 2/9. Liverpool have not conceded in the first-half of any of their last seven games and this addition swells the overall price to 1.9620/21.
Bayern always bounce back
Red Bull Salzburg 8.07/1 v Bayern Munich 1.422/5; The Draw 5.85/1
Wednesday 16 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Bayern Munich are suffering a volatile period of form by their own standards and Red Bull Salzburg will be looking to take advantage.
The Bundesliga champions lost 4-2 at Bochum at the weekend, which was their second defeat in the last five games (W3). Bayern have a healthy six point lead at the top of the German top flight and will probably win the title again, but they will need to improve if they are to win their second Champions League crown within the last three seasons.
In particular, Bayern’s defence is a cause for concern. They have only kept one clean sheet from those last five games and have conceded nine goals in total during that run.
That could make for a competitive game against opponents who scored in each of their three home games in the Champions League group stage. Salzburg were back in action at the weekend after the Austrian winter break and won 2-1 at Rapid Vienna.
Both teams to score is a short price at 1/2 and to that we can add over 2.5 goals, which has landed in each of Bayern’s last ten games and is available at 1/3.
Bayern had lost four times this season, prior to their fifth defeat at the weekend. On every other occasion they have bounced back with a win and the away victory can be added at 4/11 on the Sportsbook. This treble gives accumulated odds of 2.1411/10.
Source: Betfair Champions League
