Atletico Madrid are no long defensively secure and Dan Fitch thinks Manchester United will score against them, as he creates Bet Builder accas for Wednesday’s Champions League ties.
Atletico Madrid 2.68/5 v Manchester United 3.259/4; The Draw 3.211/5
Wednesday 23 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Two erratic European giants meet on Wednesday, when Atletico Madrid host Manchester United in the first-leg of their Champions League last-16 tie.
Atletico are the defending champions in La Liga, but are currently fifth, 15 points behind the leaders Real Madrid. Manchester United are fourth, yet are an even greater distance behind the Premier League leaders Manchester City, who they trail by 17 points.
United’s 4-2 win at Leeds on Sunday at least means that they come into this match having won their last two games. Their only loss in the last nine games, was the FA Cup defeat on penalties against Middlesbrough after a 1-1 draw (W5 D4).
The reintroduction of Paul Pogba to Manchester United’s midfield and a change to a 4-2-3-1 formation, has made Ralf Rangnick’s team a more dangerous proposition. There are still many vulnerabilities for Atletico to exploit though, if they can contain their own issues with consistency.
Atletico won 3-0 at Osasuna at the weekend, which means that they have alternated between defeat and victory across their last six games. That’s hardly surprising considering their defensive issues. Diego Simeone’s once watertight side have only kept one clean sheet from their last eight games.
Both teams to score therefore looks like a natural place to start with our Bet Builder. Available at odds of 20/23, it’s landed in six of Manchester United’s last eight games.
Though Cristiano Ronaldo’s signing has caused United some problems over all, he’s still scored six goals in five Champions League appearances this season. You can back Ronaldo to have one or more shots on target at 1/5.
Finally we’ll add Atletico to have over 1.5 cards at 1/3, which seems guaranteed to land based on recent outings. That creates a treble at odds of 2.95.
Ajax flying domestically and in Europe
Benfica 4.77/2 v Ajax 1.855/6; The Draw 4.03/1
Wednesday 23 February, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Ajax could scarcely be in better form, as they prepare to travel to Benfica on Wednesday,
The Dutch giants have won each of their last ten games. This included a 2-1 win at title rivals PSV in January and Ajax currently lead the Eredivisie by five points.
Since that game, Ajax have played four more times without conceding a goal, as they’ve racked up successive victories. Their form in the Champions League has also been impressive this season, with Ajax winning all six of their group games.
This included a 5-1 win at Sporting Lisbon and a 4-2 win against the Portuguese side at home. Second placed Sporting are currently six points ahead of third placed Benfica in the Primeira Liga.
Benfica drew 2-2 at Boavista at the weekend. That means that they have only won two of their last six games (D2 L2).
Based on both current form and Champions League results this season, we have to expect Ajax to win at odds of 3/4 on the sportsbook. Benfica only lost two of their six group games (W2 D2), but both of those losses – to Bayern Munich – were heavy defeats.
Only one of Ajax’s six group games, failed to see at least three goals scored, so we’ll add over 2.5 goals at 8/13. The Ajax striker Sebastien Haller is the top scorer in the Champions League this season with 10 goals from six games and he is available at a generous 6/5 to find the net. This amounts to a treble at odds of 3.67.
Source: Betfair Champions League
