Our football props column has a cards bet for Porto v Liverpool in the Champions League on Tuesday – one which has landed in 14 of the referee’s last 20 UEFA club games.
“Porto’s last five games have seen them collect 20 yellow cards and two reds. In four of those matches, they’ve hit 40+ booking points.”
Let’s keep things small and simple on Tuesday in the Champions League.
Regular readers will know I like to follow referee trends when it comes to the card markets and for this game we’ve got a man who loves to dish them out, Sergey Karasev.
The Russian has hit 40+ booking points in 18 of his last 21 UEFA club appointments and 50+ in 14 of his last 20.
That makes over 40 booking points in this match appeal at odds of 13/10.
Look further into Karasev’s record and you see he’s shown a red card in eight of his last 20 UEFA matches (remember it’s 25 points for a straight red, 35 for a second-yellow dismissal). Another here would go a long way to the bet winning.
He’s yet to officiate Liverpool, who are admittedly a pretty clean team in card terms, but his eight-match history with English clubs reveals he’s shown them at least two cards in six of the eight.
Liverpool’s presence in the fixture is probably the reason behind the price but competitive games often produce cards and this could well be competitive.
Remember Porto held Atletico to a 0-0 draw in Madrid on matchday one, while Liverpool – come-from-behind winners over AC Milan on the same night – are expected to make a few changes with a huge Premier League game at Manchester City on Sunday looming large.
In any case, Porto look capable of reaching 40 booking points by themselves given the way they’ve been going of late.
Their last five games have seen them collect 20 yellow cards and two reds. In four of the matches, they’ve hit 40+ booking points.
Essentially, there’s lots to like about the 13/10 price. It looks worth backing.
Click here to read Jamie Pacheco’s in-depth preview of Porto v Liverpool
Source: Betfair Champions League
