Paul Robinson has picked out a wide variety of fixtures for today’s Daily Acca as he starts in France, finishes in Argentina and has Bayern v Real sandwiched in-between. Here are his selections:
Clean sheet backers can expect to lose
Bet 1: Back BTTS in Caen v Toulouse @ 11/10 – KO 17:45 BST
We begin in France for a match between two teams who are towards the bottom of Ligue One.
The hosts are in 15th with 36 points, but with a seven point gap to the relegation zone, they can breathe relatively comfortably at this stage.
The visitors are 17th – just one place above the relegation play-off place – but Troyes behind them are four points adrift.
It’s all about the goals this evening though as both teams to score backers would have collected in three of Caen’s last four home games and while the same can be said for only two of Toulouse’s last five, the argument here is that a victory for either side would be a big enough carrot for them not to play for a draw.
Tighter game than expected at the Allianz
Bet 2: Back Under 2.5 Goals in Bayern Munich v Real Madrid @ 29/20 – KO 19:45 BST
There were plenty of goals in last night’s Champions League semi-final first leg between Liverpool and Roma, and while the Betfair odds compilers are predicting more of the same here, I think there is value in the under.
These two teams are vastly experienced sides who know how to win at this level. Bayern drew the home leg of their quarter final tie 0-0 against Sevilla, and in five Champions League matches at the Allianz this season they have conceded just one goal.
Real Madrid are clearly better at going forward than they are at defending but they did keep a clean sheet at Juventus in the first leg of their quarter final and they kept PSG to one goal in the previous round.
This is far from nailed on, but the odds are good and a 1-1 scoreline wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Boca to win the battle of Argentina versus Brazil
Bet 3: Back Boca Juniors @ 19/20 – KO 01:45 BST (Thurs)
We finish in the Copa Libertadores, which is the South American equivalent of the Champions League. Two of the biggest names in the competition have been drawn against each other in the group stage – Boca Juniors and Palmeiras – and it’s the former who I’m backing to come out on top tonight.
The Argentinians drew the reverse fixture a fortnight ago after a bit of late drama. Palmeiras took the lead in the 90th minute before Carlos Tevez equalised two minutes for Boca.
The Brazilians are two points clear at the top as they had won their two matches prior to that, while Boca are in second with five. That means that Guillermo Barros Schelotto’s men need the win more than Palmeiras and if we add in home advantage, the 19/20 looks like a fair enough price.
2017/18 P/L (1pt each bet)
Wagered: 208pts
Returned: 178.73pts
P/L: -29.27pts
Source: Betfair Champions League