The Big Match Tactical View: Roma v Liverpool

“Liverpool should be able to play high-tempo football and get chances on the counter-attack”

Roma v Liverpool
Wednesday 19:45, BT Sport 1.
Match Odds: Roma [2.7], Liverpool [2.6], The Draw [4.1].

Liverpool take a commanding three-goal lead to the Stadio Olimpico after last week’s 5-2 thrashing of Roma, but this will be a much tougher test.

That’s obvious, considering this is the away leg for Jurgen Klopp‘s men, but also because Roma are unlikely to make the same tactical mistakes this time around. Eusebio Di Francesco‘s decision to use a three-man defence was hugely counter-productive, and it’s extremely unlikely Roma will play that way again here. Expect a back four, in a 4-3-3 formation.

In theory that works better against Liverpool’s all-star front three, but it nevertheless means that Aleksandar Kolarov will be the man tasked with stopping Mohamed Salah, and defensive play isn’t exactly the Serbian left-back’s forte. On the opposite flank, Alessandro Florenzi, a good all-round player but essentially a converted midfielder, will be up against Sadio Mane. It’s hard to imagine Roma keeping Liverpool’s two wide forwards quiet thoughout this contest.

In the centre, Roma have two solid defenders in Federico Fazio and Kostas Manolas, but they were troubled by Roberto Firmino‘s drifts into deeper positions. Expect the same thing to happen here: Firmino dragging them up the pitch while Mane and Salah sprint in behind.

Roma’s three-man midfield will go head-to-head against Liverpool’s trio. Daniele De Rossi will sit deep, and he’s the man Liverpool must stop – he commanded the game in Roma’s comeback against Barcelona in the last round, but isn’t comfortable when pressed heavily. Firmino may drop back onto him to help out.

James Milner has been hugely impressive in the Champions League this season and his task here might be pressing Lorenzo Pellegrini, in for the injured Kevin Strootman. For Liverpool, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is out for the season so Georginio Wijnaldum will play here. Klopp needs Liverpool to avoid further midfield injuries, as he’s now run out of options.

The absence of Diego Perotti is a big blow for Roma, as he’s perfect for the wide role in a 4-3-3. Instead, Patrick Schick and Stephan El Shaarawy are likely to play either side of target man Edin Dzeko. He’s Roma’s pivotal player here – it’s difficult to imagine them getting back into the tie without the former Manchester City man having a stormer. He’ll probably play to the left, up against Dejan Lovren rather than Virgil van Dijk, and Roma are good at finding him with quick diagonal balls into the channels.

Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andy Robertson should continue at full-back – they might not be the most renowned players in this competition, but they’ve both been hugely consistent.

Roma have to dominate proceedings here, and Di Francesco has his side pressing more energetically than most Italian sides, who have a tendency to sit back. The atmosphere will be electric, and Liverpool will have to defend the penalty box well.

But ultimately Liverpool should be comfortable with Roma’s preferred strategy – they should be able to play high-tempo football and get chances on the counter-attack. I can imagine Liverpool having some nervous moments, but ultimately I think they’ll win this game because Roma will push forward and leave gaps at the back. I’m going to go for Draw/Liverpool at [8.2] in the Half-Time/Full-Time market.