Shakhtar v Manchester City
Wednesday September 18, 20:00
Shakhtar like their chances of making Last 16
Whether the fact that Shahktar have been playing since late July is a good thing or not is up for debate. What’s not up for debate is how strong they’ve been on the domestic front. They’re seven from seven this season and scored four, four and five in their past three matches so they’re clearly firing up front, though this is of course a very different prospect to what they have to face week-in-week-out.
As ever, the team is packed with Brazilians braving the cold in return for hefty paychecks. Maycon has started the season pretty well with four goals in four, while Taison, Dentinho, Moraes and Marlos are also crucial members of the team.
How’s this for a quirky stat, courtesy of Opta? Only Barcelona have had more Champions League goals scored by Brazilians than Shakhtar; 79 of their 124 in this competition have come courtesy of Brazilian players, a mind-boggling 64%.
This isn’t the toughest of groups with Atalanta and Dinamo Zagreb for company alongside Manchester City and with their vast experience in the competition, the Ukranians will feel they have a real chance of going through.
Plenty for Guardiola to think about
What happened to City at Norwich on Saturday? Well, it shows how valuable Aymeric Laporte is to the cause and the difference it makes when he’s not there. He’ll be out injured for a while now so that’s a massive headache for Pep Guardiola right there.
The other problem was self-inflicted; City aren’t quite the same side without Kevin de Bruyne in the startling line-up and their rhythm wasn’t what it normally is. No-one can play every match but the absence of KBD (below) isn’t a gamble Guardiola is likely to be taking again anytime soon.
Still, the stats suggest that in normal circumstances City would have won the game anyway. 68% possession, 16 corners to Norwich’s three and 10 shots on target to Norwich’s three tells its own story and perhaps it was just their finishing that let them down.
Guardiola and City are desperate to win this competition and with no obvious stand-out candidate this year, 2019/20 could be their best chance.
No away fixture in the Champions League is easy but after the Norwich disappointment on Saturday, City will be glad this is the opponents they have to face, at least if historical records are anything to go by. Four matches have yielded three wins for City with 12 goals scored to Shakhtar’s two. Mind you, those two were enough to beat City 2-1 at home back in December 2017, leading to that famous post-match press conference where coach Paulo Fonseca appeared wearing a Zorro mask.
Odds of 3/10 look prohibitively short though about a side with an embarrassment of riches upfront but lots of question marks at the back, in particular in the heart of their defence. It’s 9/2 the draw and 9/1 the home win. Take your pick from one of those two or have them both onside by laying City at [1.35] over on the Exchange.
There are plenty of reasons why over 3.5 goals appeals at 5/4. Such as the fact that it would have paid out in each of City’s five league games so far this season and in four of Shakhtar’s seven.
This could end up being a chaotic end-to-end game like the Norwich one or a game where City seek some sort of revenge for what happened at the weekend- not that I was Shakhtar’s fault- and make their next opponents’ play.
It could also easily end up 2-2. We really fancy the hosts to get at least one with City’s defence looking vulnerable so there are plenty of ways we think we can get those four goals.
As ever, there’s little value among the City players. Sportsbook odds-compilers fear/respect this lot and aren’t giving anything away about any of the usual subjects. So it’s 4/6 on Sergio Aguero, 10/11 on Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus and just 15/8 on de Bruyne, which is probably the best of a bad bunch in terms of prices; at least we’re pretty sure he’ll play.
But if there’s little value among the City players, the same can’t be said of the hosts’ attackers.
Moraes scored four in eight in the Champions League last year and is 10/3 to score here while Taison got three in seven and is a very generous 13/2. They’ve both started the season well, are guaranteed starters and as per that Opta stat, have something else going for them: they’re Brazilian! Split your stakes between the two against this porous City defence.
Source: Betfair Champions League
