The French champions Lille have made a poor start to the season and Dan Fitch thinks the value lies with backing in-form visitors Wolfsburg in their Champions League clash.
Lille 2.77/4 v Wolfsburg 2.89/5; The Draw 3.55/2
Tuesday 12 September, 20:00
Live on BT Sport Extra
Poor start to season from French champions
There are few groups in this season’s Champions League that look as open as Group G, where Lille and Wolfsburg have been drawn alongside Sevilla and Red Bull Salzburg.
Lille qualified for the group stage thanks to their surprise title win in France last season. Since winning Ligue 1 they have lost players such as Mike Maignan, Boubakary Soumare and Luiz Araujo, but in the current financial climate, it’s perhaps surprising that more of their key players were not poached.
The most significant departure was that of the manager who masterminded the title win. Christophe Galtier has moved to Nice and been replaced by Jocelyn Gourvennec. So far results have not been great under the new coach. Lille are currently 10th in Ligue 1 (P5 W1 D2 L2) and lost away at Lorient over the weekend.
Wolfsburg finished fourth in the Bundesliga last season and are currently top of the German league, having made a perfect start to the new campaign (P4 W4) under new manager Mark van Bommel. At the weekend they won 2-0 at Greuther Furth, which means that they have only conceded one goal so far this season.
Value with visitors
Lille are the very narrow favourites at 2.77/4, with Wolfsburg at 2.89/5 and the draw at 3.55/2.
Given the respective form of the two teams, it’s clear that the value lies with the visitors. Wolfsburg beat RB Leipzig 1-0 before the international break and with their fine defensive record, it’s hard to see them being beaten by Lille.
Lille are in poor form, despite the fact that they have yet to play a side that finished in the top seven of Ligue 1 last season. You can back Wolfsburg cautiously in the Draw No Bet market and still get odds of 2.0521/20.
Source: Betfair Champions League
