Hosts to win entertaining affair
Dortmund v Lazio
Wednesday, 20:00,
Live on BT Sport Extra
Dortmund have had a strong start to the campaign in the Champions League and their reward for it is that they’re top of their group on nine points and know that avoiding defeat here will be enough to see them through to the Last 16.
Lazio aren’t under that much pressure themselves. They’d need to lose this one, see Bruges beat Zenit on the same night and then lose to the Belgians at home to miss out on their own Last 16 place.
The numbers don’t look good for Lazio ahead of this one.
Opta tell us they’ve won just one of their last 14 away games in the CL and are winless in their last seven on the road in this competition, though they are admittedly unbeaten in four games this campaign.
That said, the other two in the Group aren’t anywhere near the same level as Dortmund and the Italians did of course enjoy home comforts in that 3-1 win over them back in late October.
Jadon Sancho’s team are in fine form. They’ve won six of their last eight and given that one of those times they didn’t win was against the great Bayern and you can see that was a somewhat excusable one. The other time they didn’t win was this weekend, but they were bitterly unlucky; going down 2-1 at home to Cologne, despite having almost 70% possession.
With Dortmund free-scorers on their day and Lazio generally good for a goal, it’s worth pushing the boat out and going for the home win with over 2.5 goals in it rather than just the straight victory. It pays evens.
Chelsea tight in defence as per usual
Sevilla v Chelsea
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
As the ever-wise Kevin Hatchard rightly pointed out ahead of their 0-0 draw with Spurs, Edouard Mendy may just prove to be Chelsea’s best signing of the past two seasons.
Partly as a result of his presence, their defence looks unrecognisable from the one of last season, though we should also save praise for the immense Kurt Zouma, who didn’t lose a header all day on Sunday. Then there’s Thiago Silva, who leaves the dirty work to Zouma but marshals the defence beautifully.
The result is seven clean sheets in their last nine and just two goals conceded across those two where they did concede.
Sevilla aren’t the biggest scorers at the best of times. In only three matches out of 14 did they manage to score more than once and those games weren’t against sides with the sort of defence Chelsea boasts.
I wouldn’t want to be calling this one between two well-organised sides who cancelled each other out in a 0-0 draw at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago.
But I’m pretty confident that Mendy and his mates won’t concede more than one, so get with under 1.5 home team goals at 1/2.
United might not win, but they shouldn’t lose
Man Utd v PSG
Wednesday 20:00
Live on BT Sport
On Sunday Man Utd secured a very different sort of win to the one the week before. This time round, in beating Southampton, they came from 2-0 down to win 3-2 with Edinson Cavani the man who changed everything. Coming on at half-time, he assisted Bruno Fernandes and then helped himself to a brace to win the game for his new side.
It seems he’s finally 100% fit and could be in line for a start against the club where he’s the record goalscorer. Should he play upfront, a supporting three of Bruno Fernandes, Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford would make for a mouth-watering prospect, though PSG may be a bit too dangerous for the hosts to be that ambitious in fielding all four of them.
The wider point is that United are in decent form. Sandwiched between those two league wins- West Brom last weekend and the Saints this one- was a 4-1 win over Basaksehir in this same competition and going even further back, they beat Everton 3-1 away.
It’s also worth remembering that they did beat PSG 2-1 away back in October and that a loss against this very PSG team back in 2019 was their only home defeat against French opposition in 15 games.
But the more important stat of all might be this one: United have won each of their last seven games at Old Trafford in European competitions.
PSG are a different beast to most of the other teams they played in that period so they might not win. But I don’t think they’ll lose. Get with Man Utd or draw on the double chance market at 1/2.
Source: Betfair Champions League
