Champions League Tips: Liverpool or Atleti to lift the trophy

“Games under the Anfield floodlights do have an extra energy (their poor showing last season was partly due to the empty stadiums), and having won six out of six games in Group B Liverpool should be considered the favourites.”

The Champions League group stage is over and its relevance on what’s to come in May is up for debate.

For some, the two-month break before the second round begins means form in the first stage of the competition has little bearing on what will follow. But there is a lot that can be learnt in terms of the long-term health of the competing teams; it is very rare for a team to struggle in the group stage but go on to win the competition.

The headline news, of course, is that Borussia Dortmund and Barcelona are both out of the tournament. It is no surprise in the case of Xavi’s team, who seem to be falling into deeper crisis all the time and are in fact looking even worse under their new manager. But the loss of Erling Haaland in the last 16 is a big surprise.

Ahead of Monday’s draw for the second round, here’s a look a the favourites to win the Champions League and our analysis of the market based on what we’ve seen over the first six rounds of matches:

English contingent are firm favourites

The Premier League is looking more and more dominant every year, such is the vast financial imbalance between its TV deals and those of other European leagues. Last year’s all-English final is likely to become the new norm as the rest of Europe’s super-clubs become embroiled in economic difficulties and erratic management – an indirect knock-on effect of having so much domestic dominance.

In England, there is constant competition, while its wealth also draws the best managers in the world. Antonio Conte taking charge of the fifth or sixth biggest club in the country says it all; English teams will test themselves and learn from the best coaches in the world, strengthening their grip on the continent while those in mainland Europe flounder.

Man City 4.03/1 are the current favourites but they do not look any stronger than in previous years. Pep Guardiola usually glides through the group stage, as he has done this season, but is bound to over-think things in the final rounds. The more this goes on, the more he gets inside his head and the more anxious his players become.

Liverpool and Man Utd most likely

What’s more, Liverpool 6.05/1 would probably beat them over two legs or in a stand-alone final. Games under the Anfield floodlights do have an extra energy (their poor showing last season was partly due to the empty stadiums), and having won six out of six games in Group B Liverpool should be considered the favourites. They are a brilliant cup team back in their groove.

Zinedine Zidane’s Real Madrid were the first team to win consecutive Champions Leagues since Arrigo Sacchi’s AC Milan 30 years earlier, so the chances of Chelsea 10.09/1 doing it again are slim. But Manchester United 15.014/1, likely to improve under Ralph Rangnick, are a dark horse.

Cristiano Ronaldo‘s incredible record could be enough to drag them through the rounds, and if Rangnick can get this team organised there is plenty of talent to take them far – especially with no Premier League title challenge to distract them.

Bayern and PSG the only non-English challengers

Mauricio Pochettino’s Paris Saint-Germain 7.513/2 weren’t particularly good in the group stages and looked seriously flawed in their defeat at the Etihad, when a disconnect between their lazy front three and the rest of the team badly undermined their efforts. However, should they commit to a counter-attacking style then it’s hard to dismiss the brilliance of those forwards.

More likely, it is Bayern Munich 4.57/2 who will challenge England’s dominance. Julien Nagelsmann’s side seem to lurch between extraordinarily high-scoring wins and sudden defeats, but they are still in the early stages of the project and should be in a stronger position once the tournament restarts in February.

They also recorded a 100% record in Group E, scoring 23 goals and conceding just three. That is an ominous sign for the competition.

Ajax and Atleti the wildcard options

If you fancy a long shot, then Ajax 15.014/1 could be worth a bet. They have just completed one of the most impressive group stages in history, winning all six games – including 3-1 and 4-0 wins against Dortmund. In fact, Erik ten Hag‘s side have only lost twice in all competitions this season and appear to be even stronger than they were when the same manager took them to the semi-final in 2019.

Antony and Ryan Gravenberch have emerged as two of the most exciting young talents in Europe, while this time around Ajax have some wiser heads to help them too. Sebastien Haller is in incredible form, scoring ten goals in six games in the Champions League and nine goals in 14 in Eredivisie.

At even longer odds, Atletico Madrid 34.033/1 might come good just in time. Last year’s La Liga winners have endured a poor start to the season, dropping out of the title race and only squeezing through their group ahead of FC Porto on the final day. But with no domestic distraction in the spring, it is plausible Diego Simeone gets his team into shape at just the right moment to pull off a shock.