Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting that Chelsea will comfortably beat Lille but Man Utd will find it tough in Spain…
“Matteo Kovacic and N’Golo Kante will enjoy the opportunity to burst forward in the dribble and, using their numerical advantage centrally, set away the Chelsea forwards.”
Chelsea v Lille
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Lille have not been having the best of seasons in Ligue Un and only qualified for the second round of the Champions League thanks to being in the easiest group; this match should be no problem for Chelsea, no matter how much Thomas Tuchel’s side have been struggling to click in the final third. In fact, Tuesday’s game is the ideal opportunity for Romelu Lukaku to get back to scoring ways.
The French side’s 5-1 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain earlier this month was defined by their flat 4-4-2 formation being far too stretched and aggressive, which should be a big problem for Jocelyn Gourvennec’s side at Stamford Bridge. Their desire to push up and confront, coupled with a two-man midfield, allowed PSG to counter again and again, easily cutting through the lines.
Matteo Kovacic and N’Golo Kante will enjoy the opportunity to burst forward in the dribble and, using their numerical advantage centrally, set away the Chelsea forwards. Lukaku will get a lot more touches of the ball than he did against Crystal Palace because the Chelsea midfielders will have the time and space to find his runs.
Villarreal v Juventus
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Villarreal and Juventus both prefer to play in the transitions, which should make for an entertaining game as the action swings from one end to the other. The hosts are in very good form, winning ten points from their last four games, while Juve are struggling under Max Allegri – handing Villarreal an advantage when it comes to maximising those counter-attacking chances.
Emery likes to attack quickly through the lines, and more importantly does so often down the left flank; only two clubs attack down this side more than Villarreal (42%) in the Champions League this season. That is significant because Juventus right-back Danilo is often tasked with defending this side on his own, with Paulo Dybala and Alvaro Morata so narrow as to make the formation a Christmas Tree 4-3-2-1.
In-form left-back Alfonso Pedraza should be able to overlap with success, while Villarreal can generally expect joy when attacking at speed down the flanks; Juve are just too hesitant at the moment, often looking passive in transitional moments.
Atletico Madrid v Man Utd
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Although Atletico Madrid have been struggling for form this season, they are likely to come alive in the Champions League and get back to what they do best in the knockout stages of this competition: sit in an ultra-compressed block and deny space in behind. There is a good chance this will stump Manchester United, leading to a dull and low-scoring first leg.
Ralf Rangnick’s side are clearly improving in multiple areas, but they still only look fluent in attack when up against an open and expansive team like Leeds United were at the weekend. This match will be closer in style to the 1-1 draw with Southampton, when Ralph Hasenhuttl’s 4-4-2 squeezed the space, drowning out Bruno Fernandes and denying United their individual flair.
Of course, in the Champions League you just never know what Cristiano Ronaldo may pull out of the bag, but with Rangnick unlikely to risk Paul Pogba in central midfield the service into him will be limited. Atleti will work hard to ensure they double up on in-form Jadon Sancho, which points to a match with few goalscoring opportunities.
Benfica v Ajax
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
The polar opposite of Villarreal v Juve, here are two teams who want nothing more than to dominate the ball and territory, playing a slow game domestically in which rotating possession is at the centre of everything they do and hard pressing is expected. However, while Ajax continued that style in the Champions League, averaging 60.7% possession, Benfica were forced to drop back thanks to a draw including Barcelona and Bayern Munich (41.3% average).
It’s hard to know whether they will accept a similar fate for the visit of Ajax, although they might not get much of a choice: manager Nélson Veríssimo’s preference for a 4-4-2 formation – albeit with narrow wingers and a striker who drops, helping to ensure there are multiple passing options – means Ajax’s 4-3-3 has a numerical advantage in central midfield.
They will be more purposeful on the ball and, holding more territory, are unlikely to be caught out by a Benfica side that is not particularly strong on the break.
Source: Betfair Champions League
