Alex Keble looks ahead to the four midweek Champions League matches, predicting an easy win for Liverpool at Inter Milan…
“Simone Inzaghi’s side have a history this season of strugging to pass out against a high press, while their own man-to-man pressing system can be vulnerable.”
Sporting CP v Man City
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Sporting CP did superbly to qualify for the last 16 but their journey will surely end here. The tactical idea will remain the same: Sporting sit behind the ball for long periods (they averaged 44% possession the group stages) before counter-attacking quickly thanks to the runs of inside forwards Pablo Sarabia and the standout player Pedro Goncalves.
Goncalves, who scored twice in a 3-1 win over Borussia Dortmund, is excellent at making surging runs ahead of the striker. He will start as the right inside forward in Sporting’s usual 3-4-2-1 formation, which means that when counter opportunities arise Goncalves will be looking to burst into spaces vacated by Joao Cancelo, charged with roaming into central midfield.
Unfortunately, that tactical battle isn’t likely to get very far. As Manchester City carefully and slowly suffocate, they will eventually make their pressure pay and should record a simple win to nil. Ajax, whose possession dominance pinned Sporting much in the way City’s will, won 4-2 and 5-1 in the group stages.
Paris Saint-Germain v Real Madrid
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Karim Benzema is hoping to return for this one but having spent last week training alone in the gym, it seems unlikely he will make it – and will be well below his best if he does. Benzema has been sensational this season, seemingly dragging Real through matches singlehandedly; he has 24 goal involvements in La Liga, while Real have scored just once in their last three games in his absence.
Real will struggle to score, then, or to create much, given that Benzema’s ability to drop deep and link the play is an essential feature under Carlo Ancelotti – whose hands-off tactical philosophy does not create quick football or clear attacking patterns for his players. Individualism reigns, and Benzema is the individual behind everything Real do.
What’s more, PSG tend to play with a low block in the Champions League, absorbing pressure in a 4-4-2 before hitting down the flanks via Kylian Mbappe (Neymar is out injured). Given Real’s strong defensive record, and the caution both managers will show in such a tough first leg, a 0-0 does look likely.
Salzburg v Bayern Munich
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 3
Salzburg managed to squeeze through a relatively easy group and, on balance, Bayern Munich will almost certainly qualify. But it should be a very enteraining tie and we can expect goals at both ends on Wednesday, largely because Salzburg’s 3-4-1-2 is perfectly set up to take advantage of an ongoing issue in Bayern’s central midfield.
Julien Nagelsmann’s side have conceded six goals in their last two games, including last weekend’s dramatic 4-2 defeat to Bochum. Four of these six goals came on the counter and, crucially, were the result of a strangely disorganised midfield pair making unforced errors; conceding possession sloppily to expose Bayern’s back three.
The hosts are particularly adept at this. They will be forced to sit deeper than usual, but the Red Bull way is sharp pressing and fast vertical lines, while in central attacking midfielder Brenden Aaronson they have just the player in just the place to capitalise on midfield frailty and set his team away. Aaronson, supporting a front two, has averaged three interceptions per game across his last four matches. His battle with Thomas Muller or Corentin Tolisso should give us goals.
Inter Milan v Liverpool
Wednesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 2
Inter Milan have been knocked off the top of Serie A after winning just one of their last three games, and with Liverpool in top form that gives the English side a big psychological advantage that should convert into a tactical one. Simone Inzaghi’s side have a history this season of strugging to pass out against a high press, while their own man-to-man pressing system can be vulnerable.
Liverpool will look to squeeze them at every opportunity, hounding down the ball and most likely forcing Inter into a clumsier and more direct game; it should not be hard for Thiago to control this match, or for Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah to find lots of space in the attacking transitions in between Inter’s back three.
Inzaghi’s pressing can be a bit chaotic, and they are not used to playing teams as good as Liverpool at evading pressure. Inter largely press man to man, something Liverpool love to come up against. Their positional rotation, dummy runs, and quick spins behind all create chaos when the opponent is not sticking to a rigid formation. This match should be easier for Liverpool than it looks on paper.
Source: Betfair Champions League
