Zenit v Celtic: Scots looking to protect first-leg lead but there’s value in Lions to qualify

Celtic claimed a first leg lead in Glasgow and go as favourites to qualify, but will they get the job done in Russia? Betfair’s Scottish football analyst Frankie Monkhouse helps you find the betting value…

“A lack of game time was obvious in their performance, but improvement is expected, and Zenit go as [1.66] favourites to win. That makes their price to qualify a good one.”

Zenit v Celtic
Thursday, 18:00 GMT
Live on BT Sport

Zenit know nothing was decided in Glasgow

Russian Premier League side Zenit have a job on their hands if they are to see off Scottish Champions Celtic at the Krestovsky Stadium on Thursday night and continue their Europa League adventure. Roberto Mancini’s Lions looked rusty when returning from an extended winter break to lose 1-0 in Glasgow last week. A shock result, but not one that puts them out of the competition. Nothing was decided at Parkhead that night and the players will be keen to claw back the deficit.

The Betfair traders aren’t holding out much hope, offering the locals as 11/10 second favourites in the ‘to qualify‘ market. Last week’s match was Zenit’s first competitive outing since a goalless draw with Terek Grozny on December 11th. They’ll surely come on for the experience.

Celtic favourites to qualify despite league form

Are cracks starting to appear in Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic side? They can afford to focus the bulk of their attentions on this competition and must be given credit for upsetting the odds with that narrow victory last time, but the treble winners have taken just one point from the last six available to them in the Scottish Premiership. A weekend draw with St Johnstone followed defeat at Kilmarnock and they could see their lead snipped to six points on Saturday.

Duck out of this competition at the earliest opportunity and fans will have a right to ask if the club is going backwards. They do, however, have a lead to protect and have been chalked up at [1.74] to qualify.

Better is expected from Lions

Experienced coach Roberto Mancini fired a warning to Celtic in the press this week, assuring the Scots his side are ready for the challenge and confident they’ll progress. Callum McGregor scored the only goal of the game last time, but St Petersburg’s home form is impressive, and they’ll aim to continue that in this midweek delight. A lack of game time was obvious in their performance, but improvement is expected, and Zenit go as [1.66] favourites to win. That makes their price to qualify a good one.

The visitors have something to defend and will surely set-up to park the bus and agitate an impatient home support. The longer the game goes with the scores low, the better chance Celtic have of punishing a desperate opponent on the counter. Scott Brown shone in the first-leg but they’ll need all his heart to hold their own in the middle of a Russian battleground. The away win has been written off at [6.4]. That’ll attract attention from Hoops fans and value hunters.

Indecisiveness from traders offers a shot at value

We went for goals in the first-leg, keeping in mind Celtic’s poor form in Europe and their extensive injury-list, but it didn’t work out as expected and they were able to hold firm. There were plenty of chances in the game, a combined 16 shots at goal, but a lack of quality in the final-third kept things quiet, Celtic putting only three of 11 shots on target, Zenit two of five.

With 90 minutes under their belt, will the locals now have their eye in? It’s your choice, with odds-makers taking up position on the fence, leaving the door open for a shot at value. Over 2.5 goals is 9/10, as is under 2.5 goals, both prices taken from the Sportsbook. With Zenit having to force the issue, over seems the better option.

Source: Betfair Europa League