Sporting CP v Arsenal: Hosts have a Sporting chance of stopping Gunners

Sporting CP v Arsenal
Thursday 25 October, 17:55
Live on BT Sport 2

To say it was a disastrous summer for Sporting is to put it mildly. After an attack on Sporting players by “supporters” at the training ground, the Portuguese giants saw several stars resign and walk out of the club without transfer fees attached to those departures. Keeper Rui Patricio went to Wolves (and is playing very well), midfielder William Carvalho moved to Real Betis, and exciting winger Gelson Martins made the switch to Atletico Madrid. Compensation deals may eventually be done for all of those players, but Sporting still didn’t anticipate such an exodus of talent.

The incendiary Bruno de Carvalho is no longer president, and without him the club is at least making some progress. Sporting have won all five of their home matches in all competitions, and they have won both of their Europa League clashes against Qarabag and Vorskla. In the Primeira Liga, Sporting are fifth, but only four points off top spot.

Sporting could welcome experienced defender Jeremy Mathieu back after injury, while Dutch striker Bas Dost is hoping to shake off a knock.

In many ways, Arsene Wenger was the perfect predecessor for new Arsenal boss Unai Emery. Whereas Wenger was seen as too hands-off and undemanding of his players towards the end of his illustrious reign, Emery is imploring his charges to give more at every turn. While Wenger was seen as slavish to his methods and philosophy, unwilling to adapt to the opposition, Emery spends hours poring over videos of his foes, looking for weaknesses.

Yes, these are broad brush-strokes, and I’m loath to criticise Wenger too much, but there’s no doubt that Emery’s fresh approach is working, and has won over many Gunners fans. Arsenal have won ten games in a row in all competitions (their best run since 2007), and while many of those wins have featured performances that were far from perfect, there’s no doubt that the north London giants have plenty of momentum. Some of the football they played in Monday night’s comeback win against Leicester City was thrilling, with skipper Mesut Ozil a central figure.

The Gunners are looking to make it three Europa League wins out of three, and Emery has taken the competition very seriously so far, something you’d expect from a man who won the tournament three seasons’ running with Sevilla. I wouldn’t expect wholesale changes from Monday, although Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Aaron Ramsey and Matteo Guendouzi may all start after they were only subs on Monday.

Sporting have been flawless at home this term, and it’s worth bearing in mind that despite the players they have lost, they still have plenty of European experience in the squad.

Arsenal’s run has been impressive, and Emery is having the effect I expected him to have, but I still don’t think Arsenal should be trading at [2.12] to win this. Although they have won their last four on the road, one of those wins was at Qarabag, and the other three were against teams who are currently in the Premier League’s bottom four.

This should be a bigger test than any of those games, so I’ll back Home and Draw in the Double Chance market at [1.88].

The market is split here, but I do like the look of Over 2.5 Goals at [2.02]. Sporting have scored at least twice in four of their five home games, and their last three outings in all competitions have featured at least three goals.

Arsenal have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land in nine of their last 11 clashes, so that’s the way I’ll head.