RB Leipzig v Zenit: Bulls’ downward charge to continue

“Leipzig have lost three of their last four games, and don’t have anywhere near as much European experience as Zenit.”

Lay RB Leipzig at [1.72]

RB Leipzig v Zenit
Thursday 08 March, 20:05
Live on BT Sport Extra

It’s easy to forget sometimes that RB Leipzig are a young club with a young squad. They are only contesting their second ever Bundesliga season, and this is their first ever European campaign. Against that backdrop, it seems unreasonable to expect them to repeat last season’s second-place finish in the Bundesliga, and they are surely outsiders to win the Europa League.

However, expectations rise quickly in football, and financial backers Red Bull are keen to stay on an upward curve. A run of three defeats and a draw has turned the media spotlight on coach Ralph Hasenhuttl, who seemed untouchable just a few weeks ago, so much so that he was being linked with a move to Bayern Munich.

It’s hard to put your finger on just what is going wrong with Die Roten Bullen at the moment. Star striker Timo Werner has been in and out of the team, and has scored in just one of his last eight appearances in all competitions. Playmaker Emil Forsberg looks rusty after returning from a long spell out injured, and Liverpool-bound midfield dynamo Naby Keita has faded a bit after a great start to the year.

Despite suggestions that they could rest players to make sure they can finish in the Bundesliga’s top four, RBL have insisted they’ll pick their strongest available line-up. Although young French striker Jean-Kevin Augustin is in good form, gangly Dane Yussuf Poulsen will probably get the nod to partner Werner in attack.

Having stumbled to a 1-0 defeat in Glasgow, Zenit then smashed the Scottish champions 3-0 in the second leg of their last-32 tie. Coach Roberto Mancini says drawing Leipzig at this stage wasn’t exactly fortuitous, but against a team without much European experience, the Italian will have every confidence that he can take his team to the last eight.

Zenit are only playing their fourth game since returning from a long winter break, and they only drew 0-0 at Akhmat Grozny in the Russian Premier League at the weekend. However, they have conceded just one goal in 2018 so far, so there is a solid base to build on. In 21 league games this term, they have leaked just 13 goals.

The loss of influential midfielder Leandro Paredes to suspension is a big blow, but Mancini can still pick a strong side, which no major injuries to worry him.

Leipzig have lost their last two home games to Napoli and FC Cologne, and in Europe this term they have won just one of their four home games. Their confidence is low, and they aren’t playing with much rhythm.

Zenit have only lost two of their last nine away games in all competitions, and they will look to frustrate Leipzig and limit their counter-attacking opportunities.

Leipzig feel too short at [1.72] to win, so I would lay them.

Against such a solid outfit, Leipzig will need to be at their fluent best, and they have lacked the magic touch at home. Four of their last five matches at the Red Bull Arena have contained fewer than three goals, and they have scored more than once in just two of their last nine outings.

Under 2.5 Goals is rightly the favourite here at [1.86].