RB Leipzig v Napoli: Red Bulls to charge onward

“Napoli are unlikely to field a strong team, while Leipzig rested key players on Monday night, and are clearly keen to finish the job they started in Naples.”

Back RB Leipzig to win at [1.8]

RB Leipzig v Napoli
Thursday February 22, 18:00
Live on BT Sport 1

RB Leipzig produced one of the best performances in the club’s short history on Thursday, as they won the first leg of this tie 3-1. Yes, Napoli made five changes to their team, and the game was played in front of an eerily sparse home crowd at the San Paolo. That said, Napoli still took the lead, and still had Marek Hamsik, Jose Callejon and Kalidou Koulibaly in their team.

Leipzig stuck to their brand of thrilling, counter-attacking football, and played with great speed and precision in attack. Yussuf Poulsen led the line with strength and determination, and the outstanding Timo Werner took his two goals wonderfully well. The German international striker now has 16 goals in all competitions.

Die Roten Bullen suffered a setback on Monday as they lost 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt, a direct rival for a Champions League spot. That defeat gives us a clue as to Leipzig’s intentions ahead of Thursday – coach Ralph Hasenhuttl only used Werner and playmaker Emil Forsberg as subs, while flying winger Bruma wasn’t involved at all.

Napoli are chasing their first Serie A title since 1990, and I must admit that before the first leg of this tie I overestimated the Italian club’s interest in making progress in this competition. Coach Maurizio Sarri rested a host of key players, and openly admits he can’t motivate his players for European games when all of the club’s focus is being diverted to the fight to stay ahead of Juventus in the Serie A title race.

Sarri is therefore likely to select the same strength of side, and give youngsters like Marko Rog and Amadou Diawara another chance to impress. Both midfielders looked a bit lost in the first leg, and it’s hard to suddenly click into gear when you’ve had so little first-team action.

Dries Mertens is available again after suspension, but with Napoli needing to score at least three times to have any chance of making progress, it’d be a big surprise to see him be risked in the starting XI. Vlad Chiriches, Arkadiusz Milik and Faouzi Ghoulam are all still out.

Sarri’s comments on his team’s tunnel vision when it comes to Serie A suggest that he won’t risk any big names here, especially when the title race in Italy is so tight.

Leipzig have taken seven points from their last three Bundesliga home games, and they have only lost twice at home all season. Napoli have to push forward to have any chance here, and that will play right into Leipzig’s hands.

At [1.8], I’ll go for the home win.

Werner can continue his red-hot form

Timo Werner is trading at [2.22] to score in 90 minutes, and give his recent form that’s a bet worth considering. The speedy striker has scored four goals in his last seven appearances, and he should get chances to score on Thursday night.

Bruma has really upped his game in recent weeks, scoring in three of his last six appearances, including the first leg in Naples. He’s trading at [3.15] to find the net.