RB Leipzig v Marseille: RBL v OM should be AOK

RB Leipzig v Marseille
Thursday 05 April, 20:05 BST
Live on BT Sport

RB Leipzig is a club in a hurry. In their first ever European campaign, they have reached the quarter-finals on a major tournament, and they are still on track to qualify for next season’s Champions League through their Bundesliga placing. It’s always worth remembering that RBL have only existed since 2009.

It’s been a season of ups and downs for Ralph Hasenhuttl’s team, but they are currently on an upward curve. Having battled to a very impressive 1-1 draw at Zenit which took them to this stage of the Europa League, they secured their first ever win against mighty Bayern Munich, and then followed that up with a lively 3-2 victory at Hannover.

Leipzig’s big players are starting to routinely affect games. Naby Keita and Timo Werner were both outstanding against Bayern, Emil Forsberg scored a goal at Hannover, and teenage defender Dayot Upamecano continues to impress. What’s even more encouraging for Leipzig fans is that some of the team’s best displays this term have been reserved for the Europa League. Die Roten Bullen were outstanding in the first leg against Napoli in Italy, and they played Zenit off the park at the Red Bull Arena.

Utility player Stefan Ilsanker is the only major injury doubt, although RBL have cover in both defence and midfield. On-loan Everton winger Ademola Lookman is ineligible, while skipper Willi Orban is suspended.

After a chaotic period of uncertainty, Marseille have settled down and impressed this term. New investment has seen the squad significantly strengthened, coach Rudi Garcia has proven to be a shrewd acquisition, and there is still a chance to turn this season into a glorious one.

Marseille are third in Ligue 1 and on course for Champions League qualification, they have sailed into the last eight of this competition, and they reached the quarter-finals of the Coupe de France before falling foul of the PSG juggernaut. OM have won four of their last five games in all competitions, and they have scored 12 goals in the process.

Garcia has some brilliant talents at his disposal. Former bad boy Florian Thauvin has confounded his critics by delivering 16 goals and ten assists in Ligue 1 alone, while the lavishly gifted Dimitri Payet has been involved in 20 goals this term in all competitions, including five in the Europa League. After their flops in the Premier League, Kostas Mitroglou and Clinton N’Jie have found their form in France, and former Monaco forward Valere Germain has also played his part.

Leipzig are [1.8] to win this contest, and although they have won their last two games and are on strong form, I don’t see that as an attractive price. I see the two sides as being pretty evenly-matched, and the way Marseille saw off Athletic Club home and away in the previous round suggests they’ll be no pushovers.

Over 2.5 Goals is trading at [1.81] here, and I think that’s fair. Seven of Marseille’s last eight games in all competitions have featured three goals or more, while six of Leipzig’s last ten games have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.