Lazio v Salzburg: Expect another success for Rose’s raiders

“Salzburg haven’t lost any of their last 35 games, and they haven’t been beaten in this Europa League campaign.”

Lay Lazio at [1.8]

Lazio v Salzburg
Thursday 05 April, 20:05
Live on BT Sport

It’s been a sobering few weeks for Simone Inzaghi’s Lazio. The coach has rightly been praised for overachieving in the Italian capital, but there is a danger that a campaign that looked so good for so long could unravel.

Lazio went out of the Coppa Italia to Milan in the semi-finals, losing on penalties at the Stadio Olimpico after a goalless draw. They are three points behind their bitter rivals Roma in the race for third, and could be about to fall further behind Inter if the Nerazzurri win their game in hand.

Inzaghi insists his team have deserved better results for their performances, but he must be concerned by his side’s home form. The only team the Romans have beaten at home in the last five contests is hapless Benevento, who are rooted to the foot of the Serie A table.

Austrian football has had it tough of late. The national team underperformed badly at EURO 2016, and then failed to qualify for the World Cup. At club level, Austrian sides have consistently failed to make an impact on the European stage. However, Salzburg are finally translating their domestic dominance into something tangible at continental level.

Salzburg have dumped Real Sociedad and Borussia Dortmund out of this season’s Europa League, and they haven’t lost a single game in this season’s competition. In the group stage they won three and drew three of their matches, and on the road in the knockouts they drew 2-2 at Real Sociedad and won 2-1 at Borussia Dortmund. They finished off both ties on home soil.

After years of suffering the agony of missing out on the Champions League group stage by falling in the qualifiers, Salzburg are finally making a splash, and given that they won the UEFA Youth League last season, that success may be set to continue as those young players develop.

Coach Marco Rose’s enterprising style is earning him admiring glances from Germany and elsewhere, and his charges have put together an unbeaten run of 35 matches in all competitions.

Salzburg haven’t lost a competitive match since August, and having excelled in San Sebastian and Dortmund, they won’t be overawed here.

Lazio deserve credit for winning in Kiev in the last round after a 2-2 draw at home against Dynamo, but they have only won two of their last seven games in all competitions, and as such I don’t think they should be trading at [1.8] for the win against a side that is used to picking up results week after week after week.

I’m laying the hosts.

Lazio have plenty of firepower, with star striker Ciro Immobile having scored twice at the weekend against Benevento, while it’s worth considering that Salzburg scored twice at Real Sociedad and twice at Borussia Dortmund.

Three of Lazio’s last five games have featured at least four goals, and I’ll back Over 2.5 Goals here at [1.85].