Rangers hope to overturn a 1-0 deficit against RB Leipzig and reach the Europa League final. We asked our Bundesliga writer Kevin Hatchard to take a detailed look at the form of Leipzig’s star man, Christopher Nkunku.
Rangers v RB Leipzig
Thursday 05 May, 20:00
Live on BT Sport
Nkunku has discovered his ruthless streak
If you’d never heard of RB Leipzig forward Christopher Nkunku before this season’s heroics, the temptation would be to think that he was a breakout star who hadn’t scaled any heights before this campaign. However, all the Frenchman has done this term is match the numbers to performances that already deserved them.
And those numbers are jaw-dropping. The former PSG youngster has now bashed in 31 goals in all competitions, including a Champions League hat-trick against Manchester City. He has delivered 13 Bundesliga assists, and by the end of the campaign he may have won the DFB Pokal (Leipzig are in the final against Freiburg) and the Europa League. His first senior call-up for France came this season, and quite frankly it was long overdue.
If you look at the Infogol Expected Goals data, they show you how clinical Nkunku has been in front of goal. The 24-year-old has scored 18 Bundesliga goals from an xG figure of just 11.54, and those 18 top-flight strikes have come from 35 shots on target, so he’s basically turning about 50% of his shots on target into goals.
Leeds United boss Jesse Marsch’s spell at Leipzig earlier this season won’t be remembered with any great fondness, but the one thing he did do was allow Nkunku to play in areas where he could be more dangerous.
Under his previous coach Julian Nagelsmann, Nkunku played in a range of positions, but wasn’t consistently used as a striker. He still made a big impact (in his first season only Thomas Müller had more Shot Creating Actions per 90, and last season he was top of that metric according to fbref.com), but now he is in an area where he can score as well as create.
Weaknesses are tough to find in Nkunku’s game
So, Nkunku can score, assist and provide a steady stream of opportunities for teammates. His clever movement and searing speed have seen him discomfit defenders to the point where he has won a number of penalties this season, his dead-ball delivery is often excellent and he now has a better understanding of when and when not to use his prodigious dribbling ability. He has even worked hard on his heading, scoring several goals with his head this season.
Nkunku also seems to have a solid character. He is seen at Leipzig as a humble and reserved young man, a player who hasn’t been distracted by his rise to prominence. Physically, he is in terrific shape, having played 50 games for club and country in a marathon season. He appeared 40 times last term, and in 44 matches in the season before that.
Can Rangers stop him?
In the first leg, the answer was no, even with a defensive-minded approach, but some surprisingly wayward finishing cost Nkunku a goal. He has performed well in some big away games – he scored a hat-trick at the Etihad in a 6-3 defeat at Manchester City, he got two in a vital 5-0 win at Club Brugge, he has scored at Bayern and Dortmund in the Bundesliga, and he found the net in victory at Atalanta. This is not a guy who will be intimidated by an opposition crowd, even one as raucous as the one he’ll face at Ibrox. It’s also worth noting that since the group stage began, Rangers have kept just three clean sheets in 13 UEL games.
Nkunku has scored in four of his last nine games, and is priced at 2.8815/8 to find the net here. He scored against Borussia Mönchengladbach on Monday in the Bundesliga, and I think he’ll get chances.
You could also use Betfair’s new To Score or Assist market on the Sportsbook to back him at 1.9210/11.
Source: Betfair Europa League
