Chelsea v Arsenal
Wednesday May 29, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
Greek and Italian internationals in the book
There are good reasons to think that the yellow card might come out a fair few times from the pocket of Gianluca Rocchi on Wednesday night with one of those factors being… Rocchi himself.
The Italian has averaged over five yellow cards a game this season across all competitions and showed seven reds in those 27 matches he was in charge of.
As it happens, neither of the two matches between these two this season had many cards but the stakes are considerably higher here and this (the Europa League final) is a match with a history of indiscipline. Despite being a very one-sided contest last year when Atletico Madrid beat Marseille 3-0, there were five yellows and it was a similar story the season before when Man Utd beat Ajax 2-0; there were six in that one. The season before that when Liverpool went 3-1 down to Sevilla there were seven. And in the 2015 final there were eight. You get the picture.
So who’s the so-called ‘booking waiting to happen?
For Arsenal; the team’s bad boy is Soktratis. His 12 cautions last season in the Premier League already sounds like quite a lot but that’s not even the full story. He started just 24 matches during the campaign so that makes the maths pretty simple: he got booked every other game. For good measure, he also got himself sent off in the first leg of their tie against Rennes so he’s no stranger to seeing cards in this competition, either.
Based on his 12 from 24 record in the league, the quote of evens is pretty much spot on but when you add in the fact that this is the Europa League final and that Rocchi is in charge and it looks a pretty decent price.
For Chelsea the man to have ‘onside’ is Jorginho (pictured). He may look very neat and tidy with his dozens of completed short passes a game and cultured right foot, but he’s no angel. In a one-month period between early November and early December last year he picked up four bookings in five games for club and country (Italy).
Playing in the middle of the park where all the action happens, he also looks a good selection to have his name written down at 21/10. The double comes to 6.96.
Chelsea strong on corners, Aubameyang strong in front of goal
Chelsea may not win the match in 90 minutes or even get to lift the Cup but the smart money is on them at least getting more corners.
Here are the number of corners (Chelsea first) awarded to each team over their last four matches against each other in all competitions: 6-5, 5-1, 9-4, 10-4. So they’ve had more than the Gunners in each of the last four times they’ve been up against each other and their Premier League record follows a similar pattern.
They had more corners than their opponents in 68% of their home matches this season and in 63% of their away ones. Arsenal managed to ‘outcorner’ their opponents in 63% of their home games this campaign but in away games, the number dropped drastically to just 31%.
Further proof that we might be onto something is that no side was awarded more corners in the Europa League this season than Chelsea’s 113, an average of 8.07. Arsenal do admittedly come second with 98 at an average of 7 a match but Chelsea have also conceded less than them. Chelsea gave away 54 at an average of 3.86 a match in Europe while for Arsenal it was 63 at an average of 4.5. The Blues are 8/11 on the corners match bet.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang got better and better as the season progressed. His 22 league goals meant he shared the Golden Boot but he would probably have won it outright had he scored at the rate he did in the latter part of the season, scoring a goal against Brighton in the penultimate game of the season and a brace in the final game at Burnley.
He wasn’t shy of taking a shot in the semi-finals of the Europa League, either. He got one at home to Valencia in the first leg and a hat-trick in Spain in the return leg. That made it nine goals from his last eight appearances and 31 from 50 games across the course of the season.
Good enough numbers to convince us that he can get on the scoresheet at 6/4. The double comes to 4.4.
Source: Betfair Europa League
