Atalanta v RB Leipzig: German joy on the cards

Atalanta and RB Leipzig played out a thrilling first leg, and Kevin Hatchard believes the Bundesliga side will have the edge in Italy…

“RB Leipzig are flying in Germany, while Atalanta have won two of their last 11 in Serie A. Domestic form isn’t the be-all and end-all, but it’s an indicator of how these teams are performing.”

Back RB Leipzig to qualify at 1.9420/21

Atalanta v RB Leipzig
Thursday 14 April, 17:45
Live on BT Sport Extra

Unpredictable Atalanta craving Europa glory

It’s been a strange season for Atalanta, one that hasn’t yet lived up to the incredibly high standards the club has set itself in the Gian Piero Gasperini era. La Dea fell short in the Champions League, twice letting a poor Manchester United off the hook before losing a winner-takes-all clash with Villarreal. In the Coppa Italia they led Fiorentina 2-1 with 19 minutes left, only to lose 3-2. In Serie A they are on a run of two wins in 11, so their chances of qualifying for the Champions League are now incredibly slim.

Such a regression to the mean was always likely, as the club has been significantly punching above its weight. Smart player trading and youth development has helped Gasperini, and the coach’s astute leadership has helped the team overachieve.

Atalanta have never won Serie A, and they last won the Coppa Italia in 1963. As recently as 2011, the team was playing in the second tier, and they have suffered three relegations since the turn of the millennium.

And yet the greatest triumph could be just a few results away. Atalanta played well in Leipzig for the most part, scoring a superb early goal through Luis Muriel and creating some other great attacking situations. However, having conceded a sloppy leveller, they rode their luck at the end, as Leipzig struck the bar late on and had an effort hacked off the line.

Gasperini didn’t really rotate his squad for the 2-1 defeat at Sassuolo at the weekend, but he doesn’t have many injury concerns. Josip Ilicic is still on the sidelines for health reasons, and Berat Djimsiti is expected to miss out here.

Leipzig reaching a crescendo

RB Leipzig have been the best team in Germany in 2022, and one wonders how tight a title race we might have had if Domenico Tedesco had coached the team from the get-go, rather than being parachuted in to sift through the wreckage of the Jesse Marsch experiment. Tedesco has shown he can be versatile – he played uber-competitive, physical football at Schalke, and yet with a better class of player he has overseen the implementation of a fluid attacking style with Die Roten Bullen.

Leipzig took a big step towards Champions League qualification on Sunday, as they swept aside top-four rivals Hoffenheim 3-0. Next week they’ll face Union Berlin in the DFB Cup semi-finals, so this is a really important period for the club.

Christopher Nkunku scored an early opener in that Hoffenheim game, and I believe he has been the best player in the Bundesliga this season. The Frenchman has delivered 17 goals and 12 assists in the Bundesliga, and has scored eight goals in European competition. He has plenty of attacking support, and both Andre Silva and Dominik Szoboszlai hit the woodwork in the first leg, with Silva also missing a penalty.

Red Bulls can charge into final four

The market can’t split these sides, with each of them 1.9420/21 in the To Qualify market, and I’m leaning towards RB Leipzig. Atalanta’s domestic form is far weaker than Leipzig’s, and Tedesco’s side played superbly in a recent 4-1 win at Borussia Dortmund. They won impressively 3-1 at Real Sociedad in the previous round, they have a really strong squad and have a swagger and confidence at the moment.

I’ll happily back the German side to reach the semi-finals.

Goals expected in Bergamo

I tipped Over 2.5 Goals ahead of the first leg, and really that bet should have landed given the opportunities both sides created. Again, the market expects goals, with BTTS priced at 1.635/8 and Over 2.5 Goals quoted at 1.774/5. My only worry with those markets as that if the game is level in the second half, a bit of fear might creep in, and the risk-taking might be dialled down a little. However, it is worth bearing in mind that nine of Leipzig’s last 13 competitive games have featured three goals or more.

Nkunku always worth considering

Sometimes a price is just too good to ignore, and I can’t leave alone a quote of 3.185/40 for Christopher Nkunku to score at any time. He is in sensational form, he will surely start the game barring injury or illness, and he caused Atalanta a number of problems in the first leg.

Source: Betfair Europa League