There’s a mouth-watering last-16 clash in Italy to look forward to, and Kevin Hatchard believes Bayer Leverkusen can avoid defeat against Atalanta.
“Bayer have only lost one game in 2022, and they’ll gain confidence from drawing at Bayern on Saturday. Atalanta are still overachieving, but not quite with the same sparkle as in previous seasons.”
Atalanta v Bayer Leverkusen
Thursday 10 March, 20:00
Live on BT Sport
Atalanta express is running out of steam
Football gravity dictates that what goes up must often come down. Atalanta have experienced incredible highs under Gian Piero Gasperini, who has transformed a club that was focused on avoiding the drop into one that pushed Paris Saint-Germain all the way in a Champions League quarter-final. Every game that Atalanta play in Europe’s top competition is a triumph, and they narrowly failed to reach the last 16 this time around.
However, there are signs of slowdown. Duvan Zapata is injured, Papu Gomez joined Sevilla after a rift with Gasperini, and Josip Ilicic heartbreakingly continues to struggle with mental health issues. In the previous round of the UEL against Olympiakos, Atalanta had to rely on a quickfire double from defender Berat Djimsiti in the first leg, and the long-range goalscoring ability of Ruslan Malinovskyi in the second.
We associate Atalanta with being one of the most free-scoring sides in Europe, and while their record of 50 goals in 24 Serie A games in still excellent, they have been outscored by Inter, Milan, Lazio and even Verona. In the weekend’s 1-0 defeat at Roma, they managed just five goal attempts.
Of course, all of this has to be put in context, and it’s still staggering that a club with Atalanta’s budget and history is in Italian football’s top five at the moment. Their commitment to youth development and their savvy recruitment has been a fantastic combination.
Top scorer Zapata is still out with an adductor muscle injury, while Luis Muriel was only used as a substitute in Rome. It remains to be seen whether Russian international Aleksey Miranchuk will lead the line again.
Munich draw shows that Bayer are growing
For Bayer Leverkusen to come away from a trip to Bayern Munich with a sense of regret about not winning the game is a sign of their progress under coach Gerardo Seoane. With nine matchdays left in the Bundesliga, Die Werkself are on track to qualify for the Champions League, although there are five clubs chasing three spots and it could be an almighty scramble in the closing weeks.
Bayer drew 1-1 in Munich, and had chances to win the game. Even without injured centre-forward Patrik Schick, Leverkusen still pack a punch, and they have now scored 64 goals in 25 Bundesliga matches. Fleet-footed winger Moussa Diaby has delivered 15 goals in all competitions, while Florian Wirtz is a joy to watch, with 10 goals and 13 assists across the Bundesliga and the Europa League. The club recently expressed confidence that German international Wirtz will stay for at least two more seasons, which is music to the ears of Bayer fans.
There are still questions about Leverkusen’s defensive solidity, and they have the worst defensive record in the Bundesliga’s top half, but they are getting away with it by blowing teams away with their offensive weapons.
In the UEL, they finished top of their group, and significantly they took four points off a very good Betis side.
Schick, Robert Andrich and Karim Bellarabi are all still recovering from injuries, and at time of writing none of them were expected to feature in the squad.
Atalanta too short against talented opposition
Bayer have only lost once in 2022, and even without Schick they are still a fine attacking force. They won 5-2 at Borussia Dortmund recently, they won at RB Leipzig earlier in the season and they drew in Seville against Betis. I think they are capable of avoiding defeat here too, so I’ll lay Atalanta at evens in the Match Odds market.
Atalanta won just one of their six UCL group-stage games, and I think Bayer are on the same level as the sides in that section. It’s also worth noting that Atalanta have drawn at home to Inter and Juventus, they lost at 4-1 at home to Roma and 3-2 to Milan and they have only won seven of their 19 competitive home matches.
Alternatively, you could back Bayer/Draw Double Chance and Over 1.5 Goals at 2.186/5 on the Sportsbook’s Bet Builder. 14 of Bayer’s last 15 competitive games have featured two goals or more, and the only one that didn’t was a dead rubber against Ferencvaros.
Diaby and Wirtz can shine
Florian Wirtz is one of the most exciting talents in German football, and he does such damage from his floating role behind the centre-forward. He is 5.04/1 to score at any time and 4.57/2 in the Anytime Assist market, and both of those prices seem too big to me. I also think Diaby is too chunky in the To Score market at 4.03/1, given that he has scored seven goals across his last six matches.
If you can’t choose between them, it’s worth noting that one of Wirtz or Diaby has scored in four of Bayer’s last six matches, so you could put half a point on each to find the net.
Source: Betfair Europa League
