Wolves v West Ham United: Hammers to continue their stunning progress at Molineux

Lage’s project continues for the future

Firstly, it’s a relief to get away from my nemesis Brighton. I have got them wrong in my last four previews with the Seagulls, and they couldn’t even win at a price of 1.68/13 before the international break. The kind bosses have saved me this week from more Hove hell, and we have a more exciting market too this Saturday with Wolves and West Ham.

Bruno Lage‘s side are now up to eighth in the table and have embarked on a decent run since the end of September. The victory against Southampton at St Mary’s kick-started a run of four wins from five and a draw against Leeds. Their most recent game at Crystal Palace before the international break saw them under-perform in a 2-0 loss at Selhurst.

Lage failed tactically to get a grip on Connor Gallagher in that, as the young England star ran the midfield in a free role and the battle was lost in and out of possession in that area. They rarely threatened too up front, with only two shots on target.

The Wolves’ boss said of the loss: “I think the most important thing is to look at our game. It’s a hard place to come but during the 90 minutes I was disappointed with the performance.

“It’s a moment to learn. We played against a strong team. We are playing well but that is not enough. We have to fight for the team.”

He insists it’s a project and is taking the longer term view has been the mantra, which can also be seen as trying to buy favour against the backdrop of results, or losses. The new long-term deal of Max Kilman recently was mentioned in “the vision”.

His tactics and set-ups have been fascinating from the four wingers used, to options of playing a midfield two or three. Joao Moutinho, Ruben Neves and Leander Dendoncker are the three to fit in, although Wolves are looking at a deal for Manchester United’s Netherlands midfielder Donny van de Beek according to the local press.

Their best performance of the season remains the 2-1 home win against Everton.

Midfield excelling, but how will Moyes cope without Ogbonna?

There’s no denying the Hammers are the form team at the moment with a run of WDWWW in all competitions and have won each of their past four Premier League games, the longest current winning run in the competition. The Hammers haven’t won five top-flight games in a row since February 2006 under Alan Pardew.

David Moyes, or “The Moyesiah” has made just four changes to their starting XI in the league this season, fewer than any other side. Meanwhile, no side has used fewer different players in the PL this season than Wolves (18).

The Scot has to deal with the huge loss of Angelo Ogbonna, who injured his ACL in a challenge with Liverpool’s Mo Salah before the international break. It spoke volumes of his character that he came back on the pitch to carry on in true fighter spirit. Which also says a lot about the group and will to play for the manager.

The Italian has been the ‘go-to’ guy at the back for Moyes as tactically he is most efficient and organised, but it does mean Craig Dawson or Issa Diop will get a chance, and with Dawson impressing in recent games against the two Manchester clubs and as a threat from set-pieces, something the Hammers excel in, he possibly could get the nod.

Hammers can win the midfield battle and land the Match Odds

The head-to-head is pretty even here, with the score at 5-4 in favour of Wolves, and 14-13 on the goal score. The Irons have kept only three clean sheets against Wolves’ four in that run, although Moyes’ team completed their first league double over Wolves since the 1922-23 season – the Hammers haven’t won three league games in a row against them since a run of eight between 1920 and 1958.

The win at Molineux last April saw them race into a 0-3 lead thanks to a superb performance from Jesse Lingard.

The Hammers are unbeaten in 11 away games in all competitions (won eight, drawn three), their longest ever solely as a top-flight club, and longest in general since March 2004 (13), and are surprisingly proving themselves as one of the most consistent teams now in the Premier League. They have racked up 23 points – the same as Manchester City – and are proving that last season’s spectacular run was anything but a fluke.

Therefore we shouldn’t be too surprised that they away side are priced up as favourites here at 2.588/5 with Wolves at 3.185/40.

Wolves have won their last two home league games, as many as they had in their previous nine at Molineux (L7). However, Wolves haven’t won three in a row at home in the top-flight since November 1980 and they could be up against it against one of the most improved teams in the league.

The Hammers are exceptionally well drilled and organised – compact out of possession but swift on the counter-attack with the wing-backs pushing forward as high as possible. Indeed, The Athletic highlighted in one of their most recent pieces by Mark Carey how Aaron Creswell touches the ball more in the final third while also providing high percentages in the tackle win and aerial duels won – his highest for a number of years at 66% and 68%.

The fact that Wolves were dominated by Palace in midfield recently could be the key area to lead us to the win bet. West Ham’s midfield is more dynamic and mobile with a more Frank Lampard type of role now for skipper Declan Rice. His physicality in terms of sheer size and frame surprised me when I saw him in the flesh, he’s a lot bigger than you realise and it’s no surprise he has stood up to playing every minute in the Premier League this term.

His ball carrying alongside his partner Tomas Soucek is a fine combination. The added dimension of Pablo Fornals in terms of attacking output should be enough to see us make a profit from backing the visitors here at 2.588/5. The Spaniard is now enjoying one of the best spells of his career.

Allied with their efficiency set-pieces with six goals this season (joint-top with Liverpool and Arsenal), backing the visitors is my number one bet, and we should be looking to combine the decent win price at around 6/4 on the Sportsbook with other markets for the Betbuilder.

The international break proved fruitful for Hammers’ striker Michail Antonio, who scored a couple of goals for Jamaica in games against El Salvador and USA, including a long-range rocket against the Americans. That’s now nine in 16 in all competitions this term, and the extra responsibility he has taken on in terms of leading the line has improved his game again.

Opta Joe tweeted: “52 – the forward has scored 52 goals in the top flight, with each one of them coming from inside the box. “Inside – 278 shots, 52 goals. Outside – 119 shots, 0 goals.” An away win and the 31-year-old to score at anytime on the Sportsbook Betbuilder pays a decent 4.18 for a multiple.

Adama Traore has started only two of the last five games which remains something of a mystery, but as his current contract runs to the end of next season, Lage continues to bat away questions about his future at virtually every media conference. His lack of game time is highlighted in the lack of appearances in some of the Sportsbook #oddsonthat prices.

Raul Jiminez scored his third of the season against the Toffees, a game Kilman also netted in. Jiminez has been boosted from 5/2 to 3/1 on the Sportsbook to have ‘1 or more headed shots on target’.

However, Fornals warrants a closer inspection. He scored in the 3-2 win over Liverpool, and end-to-end encounter and is already one off his tally of five last season. He also netted late in the Aston Villa 1-4 victory. A price of 11/2 in the ‘To Score’ market looks big for the 25-year-old.

Jarrod Bowen has scored more Premier League goals against Wolves than he has against any other side in the competition (3). His three goals against them have come in his last two appearances, and he averages a goal once every 77 minutes against the Black Country side, but I’ll move towards Fornals as the Hammers focus a lot down the left-hand side with Creswell.