West Ham have been far from convincing in recent times and are worth taking on against rejuvenated Newcastle, says Dave Tindall…
“I’m veering between a draw and an away win this time so the simplest way to go is a lay of West Ham at 1.758/11.”
Hammers still in race but fourth but form a concern
West Ham have suffered eight defeats this season which is just one fewer than basement boys Burnley.
And yet they remain big runners to achieve fourth place and a place in next season’s Champions League.
Let’s be fair, there’s an awful lot going right for the Hammers and David Moyes is doing an excellent job. But they are rather being allowed to stay in the race due to the ineptitude of others.
As it stands, West Ham are two points behind a stuttering Manchester United and two in front of Arsenal although the Gunners have three games in hand. That far from equates to nine points though. Wolves and Spurs are four and five points respectively behind the Hammers.
This is the first of two back-to-back home games (Wolves travel to the London Stadium next Sunday) and probably four points at the very least are a must if West Ham are serious about finishing fourth.
However, they’ve taken just four points from their last four Premier League games so they’re hardly in a rich run of form.
Magpies taking flight
It seems to have happened in the blink of an eye that Newcastle have got from likely relegation candidates who just couldn’t win a game to a side rocketing up the league towards mid-table.
They can’t relax yet of course but the Saudi money and subsequent feelgood factor around the club is really kicking in now.
Eddie Howe’s men can now be fairly described as one of the Premier League’s form teams. That’s due to three straight wins which have lifted them four points clear of the drop zone.
That run started with a 1-0 win at Leeds and continued with home wins over Everton (3-1) and Aston Villa (1-0). And who knows how far they may stretch that winning/unbeaten sequence as the Magpies follow this game with a trip to Brentford and a home clash with Brighton.
One fly in the ointment is an injury to Kieran Trippier. The former Spurs and Atletico man has been a brilliant purchase, netting free-kicks in the wins over Everton and Villa.
On league position, the market comes as no real surprise. West Ham are clear favourites at 1.758/11 while Newcastle trade at 5.59/2 and The Draw at 4.1.
But is that a proper reflection of the pair’s current form? West Ham’s one win in the last five is a 1-0 success over struggling Watford and they almost suffered humiliation in the FA Cup to non-league Kidderminster.
The Hammers also got of out jail last week when defender Craig Dawson bagged a last-minute equaliser in a 2-2 draw at Leicester. Bottom line, can West Ham be trusted at that price?
Newcastle are on a roll and, although the loss of Trippier is a blow, confidence is still flowing. Another new signing, Dan Burn from Brighton, helped them keep a clean sheet in the win over Villa and the Magpies have now conceded just three times in their last five Premier League matches.
It must also be a plus that they’ve won their last two away games at West Ham: 2-0 last season and 3-2 in the 2019/20 campaign. For balance, the Hammers beat Newcastle 4-2 at St James’s Park in August.
I’m veering between a draw and an away win this time so the simplest way to go is a lay of West Ham at 1.758/11.
For goalscorers, Allan Saint-Maximin is worth a look at 4/1 on the Sportsbook. However, it’s worth noting that all five of his Premier League goals this season have come at home.
New Magpies striker Chris Wood is just 15/8 and, until he gets off the mark, I can leave him at those prices.
Although I don’t think West Ham will win the game, some of their scorer options take the eye.
Declan Rice netted three in seven for club and country earlier in the season and also rescued his team against Kidderminster. I’m convinced he’ll start to score more goals as his career progresses and 13/2 anytime is tempting.
But, on current form, Jarrod Bowen is the standout after scoring seven in seven games. The 9/5 for him to add another seems more than fair.
In two of the last four matches when Bowen scored, West Ham didn’t win the game and I’m going to use that info for one more bet. Let’s head to the Same Game Multi and back Bowen to Score and Newcastle (+1) which works out at around 10.09/1.
As I expect West Ham to find the net, Both teams to Score is obviously another option at 1.824/5.
The Hammers are definitely the BTTS kings having both scored and conceded in 16 Premier League games this season. No side has done that more often.
Opta stat
West Ham’s Jarrod Bowen has been involved in 12 goals in his last 11 games in all competitions, scoring eight and assisting four. Overall Bowen has scored 12 goals in all competitions this season – the last player to score more with the Hammers as a top-flight club was Marlon Harewood in 2005-06 (16).
Source: Betfair Premier League
