West Ham have lost their last two, but Paul Robinson is expecting them to bounce back against a goal-shy, Brighton…
Things still looking good for West Ham
The Hammers fell to their second Premier League defeat in as many matches at a snowy Etihad on Sunday, but that can easily be forgiven, and the outlook is still bright at the London Stadium.
David Moyes‘ men have already secured their progress in the Europa League, which is a bonus as they can afford to rest their key players in their final group game.
They are still in the Champions League places, but with the chasing pack closing in, Moyes will be keen to get three points on the board here, especially with Chelsea coming up at the weekend.
Said Benrahma was subbed just before the hour against City, and his starting place is beginning to come in for some scrutiny – even more so now with his replacement, Manuel Lanzini, grabbing a late consolation.
Boo boys don’t impress Potter
Graham Potter wasn’t pleased with a section of the Brighton fans on Saturday evening, as his team were booed off the pitch following their 0-0 draw with Leeds.
The result extended their winless run to nine in all competitions, but it’s worth noting that only Man City and Aston Villa beat them during 90 minutes in that run.
The Seagulls are still ninth in the table, and only the top three have lost fewer matches. They also have the fifth best defensive record, but with the goals drying up, Potter needs more from the likes of Neal Maupay and Leandro Trossard.
When I first looked at the betting for this fixture, West Ham were a shade of odds-on on the Betfair Exchange, but they have since drifted to 2.0811/10.
I think that’s a fair price and one worth backing, even though Brighton have proven to be hard to beat this season.
The last time the Hammers played at home in the league, they beat Liverpool, and prior to that they won against Spurs.
The visitors – who are trading at 4.03/1 – lost on their most recent away outing, and with goals becoming increasingly scarce, their defence can’t keep bailing them out forever.
The draw is available to back at 3.65, but if you fancy that, I’d advise you go for a 0-0 Correct Score at 12.011/1,
Another bet I like comes in the Over/Under 2.5 Goal Market, and that is Unders at 1.8810/11.
It would have landed in nine of Brighton’s 13 this term – including four of their last five on the road. They have failed to find the net on their three latest outings, and if they do score, it’s rarely more than once.
Over 2.5 backers would have collected in all but one of West Ham’s home matches this season, but their attacking prowess has definitely dropped off since the international break, and they will find it tough to get multiple goals against this Seagulls defence.
It is trading at around the 2.1211/10 mark, but it would need to be bigger than that for me to be tempted. I am definitely sweet on Unders, at the prices.
My Bet Builder for this game is a combination of my two selections so far – West Ham win and Under 2.5 Goals, as well as Over 3.5 Cards.
I prefer backing cards in night games where the atmosphere tends to be a bit better. It’s also worth noting that the visitors have already racked up 33 of their own this season.
Key Opta Stat
Since the start of last season, Brighton striker Neal Maupay (-5.9) is one of only two players in the Premier League who have scored at least five fewer goals than their expected goals tally, along with Chelsea’s Timo Werner. Maupay has netted 12 goals in the competition in this period, despite having an expected goals total of 17.9.
Source: Betfair Premier League
