Watford v Everton: Toffees can take a further step towards safety

It seemed a decent enough idea to bring in Roy Hodgson to try and restore some order to an ailing Watford side.

But if you keep changing managers, sometimes it’s wrong place, wrong time and Hodgson’s tenure has been a massive disappointment.

Their relegation was confirmed with three matches still to play and 22 points from 35 games is a terrible return.

It’s a real job to find anything positive in the season although when it comes to the most depressing stat there’s a clear leader: Watford have lost their last 11 home games. Truely dreadful stuff.

If trying to find a glimmer of good, the last two were by 2-1 scorelines – v Brentford and Burnley – and both came late on. But that tells its own story. When the pressure is on at the end of a game, Watford fold.

Perhaps Hodgson will play them a video of their last meeting with Everton when they came from 2-1 down with 12 minutes to play to somehow win 5-2. That October clash seems a long, long time ago now though.

Everton look to be avoiding worst nightmare

After Everton lost 3-2 at Burnley, the creeping threat of relegation really started to hit home. And when their opponents started adding wins under stand-in boss Mike Jackson, it really did begin to appear massively worrying.

Frank Lampard wore a haunted look and Everton were matched as low as 1.618/13 to go down.

But three wins and a draw from their last five matches, including victories in both of the last two, and the market says the Toffees are nearly safe. Everton are 12.011/1 for relegation while the odds suggest it’s now a shootout between Leeds 2.166/5 and Burnley 2.245/4.

Is it right to pat Lampard on the back and say the job is almost done? The points won column says that’s far too premature as Everton (35pts) have just a single point more than Burnley and Leeds.

Perhaps, crucially, they have a game in hand and after this one it’s home to Brentford and Crystal Palace before a trip to Arsenal on the final day.

Everton have really dug in to win six points out of six in their two May fixtures so far: a 1-0 home win over Chelsea and a 2-1 success at Leicester at the weekend.

Everton clear favourites to add to win streak

On the one hand it would seem crazy to back an away team at odds-on when they’ve taken a paltry nine points out of a possible 51 on their travels.

But with a third of those coming last weekend and the hosts being so inept, the betting shows Everton at just 1.910/11 to return north with all three points.

Watford are 4.67/2 to take victory while The Draw is 3.8514/5.

Everton are deserved favourites but I’d be a little reluctant to play them at such a short price.

However, one thing they haven’t eradicated on the road is conceding goals and you have to go back to August since they shut a home team out. That was Brighton in a 2-0 win.

The visitors are stll shipping chances and, for all their faults, Watford have at least managed to score in four of their last five games at Vicarage Road.

But take a look at that goals against column at home! Watford have conceded 41 times in front of their own supporters which works out at 2.41 goals per game.

It’s probably fairly obvious where I’m heading with this now. Yes, forget that basic win price for the visitors and, instead, back Everton and Both teams to Score at 4.216/5.

That landed at Leicester and the same outcome can unfold here.

Richarlison worth a look on the Bet Builder

Making that prediction means I’m clearly a fan of Both teams to Score and Over 2.5 goals. They’re priced at 1.845/6 and 2.021/1 respectively.

If heading to the Sportsbook, a decent Bet Builder plan is to add in Richarlison for the goalscorer element.

The Brazilian has really looked up for the battle and has found enough quality to slot home four times in his last six matches, including both goals at Burnley.

Richarlison to score, Everton to win and Both teams to Score pays 5.59/2.