Watford v Crystal Palace: Another low-scoring struggle for Hornets

“Six of Watford’s last seven league games have been 0-0 at half-time and Roy Hodgson’s defence-minded approach is only likely to enhance the prospects of another first-half stalemate.”

Watford in trouble despite Villa win

Watford have found goals hard to come by since Roy Hodgson’s arrival and their home game against Crystal Palace on Wednesday night could prove another slow burner. The Hornets axed Claudio Ranieri last month and Hodgson was brought in to tighten up the defence and guide the team to Premier League safety. The former England manager has certainly made a difference, in organising the back line, but will need his attackers to fire if Watford are to avoid the drop.

A 2-0 home defeat to Brighton earlier this month was a huge setback for Hodgson to leave most fans resigned to the team’s fate. But Ismaila Sarr returned to the team, following his injury and international absence, at Aston Villa and the influential winger’s stunning cross set up Emmanuel Dennis’ goal for a vital 1-0 win on Saturday.

It was Watford’s first goal in five matches and their first victory since defeating Manchester United in November.

The win lifted Watford up to 18th in the table but the team are still four points behind Newcastle and need to back up this result if they are to maintain their top-flight status.

Palace short on recent victories

Crystal Palace have won plaudits this season for their performances under Patrick Vieira but the reality is the team are currently only one place above their 14th place finish under Hodgson last season. The Eagles have hit a sticky patch, with a six-game winless run in the league stretching back to the end of last year.

Conor Gallagher has been one of their success stories of the season but the midfielder was unavailable to face his parent club during Palace’s 1-0 home defeat to Chelsea on Saturday. Vieira needs Wilfried Zaha to deliver more big moments with the team struggling in the final third. Their only goal in the last three league outings came from Zaha and it is clear Palace need a greater end product to climb closer to mid-table.

Crystal Palace head to Vicarage Road as 2.4 favourites but there is no real appetite to side with the Eagles. Palace have yet to win in 2022 in the league and have claimed just one away victory all season – albeit this was an impressive scalp at the champions Manchester City.

Watford are available to back at 3.35 but it is also not easy to support the hosts with any confidence. It is possible the Hornets will thrive off their breakthrough at Villa but this is also a team which have won just once in their last 12 league matches. There is too much uncertainty over Watford to trust them for back-to-back victories.

The draw is priced at 3.4 and is certainly the most appealing of the three options. Palace have drawn two of their last three matches and their total of 11 in the league this season is only less than Brighton’s tally. This could be a cagey contest and a stalemate would be no surprise but other markets are preferred for a recommended bet.

This could be a match short on goals and a low-scoring first half looks a strong betting proposition. Six of Watford’s last seven league games have been 0-0 at half-time and Hodgson’s defence-minded approach is only likely to enhance the prospects of another first-half stalemate. Palace’s last two games have also been goalless at the break and a bet on a blank opening 45 minutes stands out at 17/10.

Both teams have lacked sparkle in front of goal lately and there looks to be a strong chance of this continuing under the lights at Vicarage Road.

Watford’s last five matches have all resulted in at least one of the teams failing to score. This has also been the case in Palace’s last two games and there is no urgency to steer away from backing this trend.

It is a surprise to see odds of 2.04 dangled in taking no for both teams to score. This seems too good to turn down and is a confident selection in a game which is unlikely to be littered with goals.

Opta Stat

Watford have kept as many clean sheets in four Premier League games under Hodgson (two) as they had in their previous 36 games in the competition combined.

Follow Simon’s bets on Twitter @watfordtipster