Tottenham host Brighton on Saturday, with Champions League football within their sights and Steve Rawlings expects a routine win for the hosts…
“Spurs have won all four of their previous Premier League home games against Brighton and their last seven in all competitions.”
In-form Spurs have a top-four finish in their sights
Tottenham have been matched at a high of 13.012/1 in the Premier League Top 4 Finish market but with the end of the season fast approaching, and with Arsenal, Manchester United and West Ham all faltering, Antonio Conte’s team are now odds-on to make the top-four.
Trading at around 1.51/2, Champions League qualification is now in their own hands and a distinct possibility thanks to a tremendous run of form over the last month or so.
A fantastic 3-2 victory at Manchester City was immediately followed by 1-0 defeat away at Burnley at the end of February but they’ve won six of their last seven since being toppled at Turf Moor.
Aston Villa fans are still in a state of shock over Saturday’s 4-0 defeat at home to Spurs and rightly so when you look at the stats.
The home side had the lion’s share of the possession, more shots than the visitors, and the Spurs keeper, Hugo Lloris, was arguably man of the match for the visitors. The xG for the game was 1.79 – 0.85 in favour of Villa but the score line demonstrated just how ruthless Conte’s men are at present.
Harry Kane failed to find the net for the third Premier League game in-a-row but Son Heung-min’s hat-trick on Saturday were his fourth, five and sixth goals in the last three and Tottenham have scored at least twice in each of their last seven Premier League matches.
Only title challengers Liverpool are ahead of Spurs in the latest eight and ten match form tables and after Saturday’s 4-0 win, Spurs have now scored 34 Premier League goals in 2022 – more than any other side in the division.
Shock Gunners win stops the Brighton rot
After a miserable run in the Premier League, which saw them lose six in-row, Brighton stopped the rot with an unexpected victory at Arsenal last weekend, following a 0-0 draw at home to Norwich the week before.
Famed for their profligacy in front of goal, the Seagulls outplayed the Canaries at the Amex a fortnight ago, but Neal Maupay missed a number of opportunities, including one glaringly obvious one from the penalty spot, and despite bossing the xG 2.86 – 0.58, Graham Potter’s charges had to settle for a point.
It was a whole different story at the Emirates though where Brighton, uncharacteristically, outscored their xG comfortably.
The Gunners were poor following their 3-0 drubbing to Crystal Palace but the 2-1 score line in favour of the Seagulls still contrasted with the xG of 2.68 – 0.71 in favour of the hosts and the question now, is can Brighton build on the result?
At around 7.06/1 in the win market, the visitors are slightly longer than they went off at last week to beat Arsenal (6.611/2) but we have to go all the way back to September for the last time they won back-to-back Premier League games and they haven’t won back-to-back away matches all season.
In-form Spurs can brush the Seagulls aside
Conte’s Tottenham are on quite a roll and it’s hard to see then hitting the buffers against Brighton.
Spurs have won all four of their previous Premier League home games against Brighton and their last seven in all competitions. And they’ve scored at least twice in six of their last seven at home to the Seagulls.
In addition to beating them 2-0 in the reverse Premier League fixture last month, they also put them out of the F.A Cup back in February (3-1) and they look a perfectly fair price at 1.574/7 in the win market but the value arguably sits in the Half Time/Full Time market where the hosts trade at around 6/4.
Spurs have been winning at both half time and full time in five of their last seven home matches in the Premier League and a wager on Tottenham/Tottenham would have also landed in each of their last four matches against Brighton.
Having gone three games without a goal, it’s surely only a matter of time before Harry Kane bags another and at odds-against, he looks a fair bet to find the net against the Seagulls given he’s netted five goals in his last five appearances against them but a better way to play the Tottenham talisman could be in a Bet Builder on the Sportsbook.
Scroll all the way down to the bottom of the market under the Bet Builder tab and you’ll find the option to back a player to score or assist and that looks like a safe way to play Kane.
He may not have found the net in his last three Premier League appearances but given Kane assisted three times in the win at Villa Park last week, once against Newcastle the week before, and for all three goals in the 3-1 win against West Ham at the end of March the 8/15 for him to score or assist looks fair and that combined with a Tottenham win pays a very reasonable 1.96.
*You can follow me on Twitter @SteveThePunter
Source: Betfair Premier League
