Southampton v Watford: Dreadful Hornets means a pair of correct score plays

Back-to-back defeats for the first time since November for Hass’

As usual when a side is touted for a potential late dash for a European spot, the wheels came off in spectacular fashion for Ralph Hasenhuttl on Saturday with a 4-0 mauling at the hands of a Phillipe Coutinho inspired Aston Villa. So many aspects of Southampton’s game that had previously been so impressive, were missing. With just one shot on target, it was a performance described as “everything going wrong at the same time”, and it could have been a lot worse as the four goals conceded flattered the Saints.

The absence of Mohammed Salisu at the back was felt badly, and having conceded a goal so early in the ninth minute, it was a one-way traffic. Although Coutinho was sensational

It was a performance that could have been put down to their awful defensive away record, but their catch-up game on Thursday was another defeat at home to Newcastle – only the second time Southampton have lost at St Mary’s all season.

Bruno Guimaraes scored a stunning winner, and was one of the major summer transfer targets for Hasenhuttl, it was just as painful as hearing the money-themed medley of songs pre-game. Saints were very passive with the ball and failed to defend crosses whipped into their box. Of course, Newcastle are improving, but it was a negative display – which has been so unusual – especially at home.

Those losses suffered have impacted greatly the price in the Top 10 Finish market . They had previously traded odds-on, but back out to 2.526/4.

Nathan Tella could make his comeback after recovering from his groin injury which has caused him to miss the past nine games.

Down and almost out for Roy

Football’s very own Methuselah in Roy Hodgson needs time, but one thing he hasn’t got is that commodity. With only one victory in seven since he took charge, their price of 1.132/15 in the Relegation market tells us it’s all but over. With just two points the cushion over Norwich, these must be two of the worst sides in the Premier League for quite some time. Everton can count themselves lucky.

Just one victory since November highlights the chasm potentially for this weekend and they were well and truly thumped at Wolves on Thursday night, although Hodgson was quick to refute any claims that his players have all but given up. He said: “We could be accused in a lot of areas of not being good enough at the moment, but they really are doing the work. They are covering the ground, they are making the tackles, they are getting back in after we’ve lost the ball.”

Survival looks bleaker than a D.H Lawrence novel. Hodgson has won just three of his 11 Premier League meetings with Southampton to compound the misery.

William Troost-Ekong cold return after a groin strain, while full-back Jeremy Ngakia is another that could be included following a hamstring issue. Joao Pedro missed the defeat at Wolverhampton with Covid-19, and it’s unsure where he is in terms of Sunday’s game.

The one hope to cling onto is the Hornets have been slightly better away from home – and their last success was a 0-1 at Aston Villa. I won’t be taking the line of form too literally though.

Southampton are dominant on the head-to-head, winning six of the last seven games between the pair, and I wouldn’t have been surprised if the hosts had been priced up at around 1.42/5. The south coast club have also won the goals count in the last eight games, with a scoreline of 21-15.

The back-to-back defeats for the first since November have influenced this price, and while it’s not a massive differential, playing at short odds and a 1/5 increase is enough. I think the 1.664/6 on offer is pretty good.

Opta stats paint an even gloomier picture for any hopes of getting involved with Watford. Hasenhuttl’s men are unbeaten in their past six Premier League games against Watford, winning each of the past three (D3). Indeed, Saints have lost just two of their 13 meetings with the Hornets overall in the competition (W6 D5).

Crucially as an indicator, against two struggling teams in Everton and Norwich, Southampton recorded excellent xG figures of 2.73 and 3.09, and anything on those lines should see them score at least two – especially with just 12 goals conceded all season at home.

Citing those Everton and Norwich 2-0 victories, that is most certainly an area to look at with a Correct Score punt. We can start with the 2-0 at 9.28/1 and the 3-0 at 15.014/1. Defensively they only gave up a goals against xG of just 0.20 against Everton. More of the same please. I certainly wouldn’t want to start laying those two scorelines, as the 3-0 looks massive. An early goal gives us a trading option to lay back.

Midfielder and baller James Ward-Prowse has scored four goals in his past five Premier League starts against Watford. Against no side has he scored more goals in the competition than his four against the Hornets, and he was a 6/1 chance on Friday night on the Sportsbook to score first.

It’s hard to make a case for any Hornets man as Watford failed to manage a shot on target for the first time in 32 league games, since April 2021 against Luton in the Championship – recording a miserable 0.50xG. That lures me to the Both Teams To Score bet ‘No’, which is the bigger of the two at Evens on the Sportsbook.

Stuart Armstrong netted his 14th Premier League goal, with his opener against Newcastle his first in the competition with his head. The Anytime Scorer price of 7/5 will do, as I am not too downbeat from the Toon defeat as they had 11 shots inside the box and only scored once according to Hasenhuttl.