Southampton tend to concede and Dan Fitch is banking on that trend continuing, as he previews the Saints’ Friday night match with Norwich.
Southampton come into their Friday night match with Norwich on a run of fine form.
The Saints have only lost one of their last 11 games across all competitions (W6 D4). That run has seen them progress to the Fifth Round of the FA Cup, where they will host West Ham and move up to tenth place in the Premier League.
For a club that starts each season looking to merely avoid relegation, that is a commendable achievement. Continually surviving in the Premier League is no mean feat for a club that habitually have their best players and managers poached. As of yet, no other club seems to have made a move for the Southampton manager Ralph Hasenhuttl, who is clearly the Saints’ greatest asset.
Alex McCarthy, Lyanco and Nathan Tella are all unavailable through injury. Romain Perraud missed the game against Everton with Covid, while Nathan Redmond is back in training after recovering from an ankle knock.
Norwich’s rivals have all strengthened
Norwich’s form has definitely improved of late, but staying in the Premier League remains an extremely difficult task.
The Canaries had climbed out of the relegation zone, after a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions (W3 D1) saw them move to safety and remain in the FA Cup. Then came fixtures against Manchester City and Liverpool, where defeats inevitably followed and Norwich slipped back down to the foot of the table.
Norwich are now five points from safety and have played more games than all of the other sides in and around the relegation zone. They decided not to spend any money in the January window, despite the fact that Burnley, Watford, Newcastle and Everton, all brought in new faces to strengthen their squads. Little wonder that Norwich are 1.141/7 to suffer the drop once again.
Dean Smith could have done with some reinforcements, at a time when his squad has a few injuries. Tim Krul, Andrew Omobamidele, Jacob Sorensen, Lukas Rupp and Adam Idah will all miss the trip to Southampton.
Saints generally concede
Southampton are the favourites at 1.584/7, with the draw at 4.57/2 and a Norwich win at 6.611/2.
As well as Southampton have been playing, they look a little slim against a Norwich side that were also in good form until their recent losses against the Premier League’s top two. Norwich won away at Wolves in the Fourth Round of the FA Cup, with Wolves being the only team to have beaten Southampton in the last 11 games.
Norwich also took the lead away at Liverpool, before the hosts fought back to win 3-1. Though in good form, Southampton still concede regularly, having let in goals in 15 of their last 16 matches. That could be key to finding some value in a home win, with a Southampton victory and both teams to score available at 3.412/5.
Three goals scored in reverse fixture
Both teams to score is 1.991/1 as a standalone bet. Southampton beat Everton 2-0 in their last outing, but both teams to score had landed in each of their previous ten games.
It also paid out in the reverse fixture, with Norwich won 2-1 at Carrow Road. Over 2.5 goals is another bet worth considering at 2.0521/20. That bet has landed in four of Norwich’s last five games.
Source: Betfair Premier League
