Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions ahead of the North London Derby…
“Spurs are in much better shape than they were when they lost at Arsenal earlier in the season, despite suffering a midweek Carabao Cup exit, and Antonio Conte’s side are expected to have a slight edge against their neighbours.”
Brighton to claim derby win
Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace
Friday, 20:00
Brighton needed a last-gasp equaliser to rescue a point in the reverse fixture against Crystal Palace, but Infogol backs them to win the M23 derby at the Amex Stadium. Palace showed some quality in their FA Cup win at Millwall last weekend, but the absence of AFCON stars Wilfred Zaha and Jordan Ayew could harm them in attack against a home side averaging just 1.16 xGA in front of their own fans.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.0010/1
City to all but confirm title win
Manchester City v Chelsea
Saturday, 12:30
Manchester City can move 13 points clear of Chelsea with a win on Saturday, and their home average of 0.60 xGA ought to make things tough for the visitors. Thomas Tuchel’s visitors are coming off three straight victories in cup competitions, but haven’t shown enough in the league in recent weeks to suggest they will be able to stop the runaway league leaders.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 9.6017/2
Burnley to suffer further relegation blow
Burnley v Leicester City
Saturday, 15:00
With Maxwel Cornet away at the Africa Cup of Nations and Chris Wood joining Newcastle United this week, Burnley are looking light up front as they prepare to host Leicester. They have been more solid defensively at home than on the road, averaging 1.24 xGA per game, but Brendan Rodgers’ visitors showed in the cup that they have goals running through the whole team.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Newcastle to blow relegation battle wide open
Newcastle United v Watford
Saturday, 15:00
Despite a humbling cup exit, Newcastle will feel confident against a Watford team who have been in freefall. Infogol’s model backs the hosts to claim a rare league victory against opponents whose last four league games have brought four defeats and a 2.63 xGA average. Newcastle could end the weekend outside the bottom three if things go their way, and they will have few better chances.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Norwich’s blunt attack to let them down
Norwich City v Everton
Saturday, 15:00
Norwich City’s last five Premier League games have come and gone without them finding the net, and an average of 0.82 xGF per game suggests things will need to improve in either chance creation or shot conversion if they want to give themselves any hope of survival. Opponents Everton have been leaky at the back, averaging 1.73 xGA away from Goodison Park, but Infogol still considers them the more likely winners.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1 or 1-1 @ 7.4013/2
Wolves to remain solid at the back
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
Wolves have outperformed their defensive numbers to concede just twice across their last six league and cup games, but that run included all of last season’s Premier League top four. Southampton travel to Molineux off the back of an impressive midweek win over Brentford, but their 1.80 xGA average on the road could end up setting them back against opponents who can move seven points ahead of Ralph Hasenhüttl’s men with victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1 or 1-1 @ 7.206/1
Man Utd to repeat Villa win
Aston Villa v Manchester United
Saturday, 17:30
After knocking Villa out of the FA Cup on Monday, United can go two for two against Steven Gerrard’s side when they meet at Villa Park. Ralf Rangnick’s side remain not wholly convincing going forward, and the hosts have added Philippe Coutinho and Lucas Digne to their ranks since the last meeting, but Infogol’s model still backs the visitors to atone for their home league defeat back in September.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.5019/2
Reds to win without attacking duo
Liverpool v Brentford
Sunday, 14:00
Despite losing Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané to international duty, Liverpool remain favourites to get past a Brentford side who held them to a 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture. Thomas Frank’s side haven’t won an away league game since October, and are averaging 1.68 xGA on the road, so the prospect of hosts with a 2.73 xGF home average won’t exactly thrill the visitors.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.008/1
West Ham to go back-to-back against Leeds
West Ham United v Leeds United
Sunday, 14:00
West Ham’s four straight wins in all competitions include a cup victory over Leeds, though both teams rotated for that game. More concerning for the away side will be the Hammers’ 2.65 xGF average across their last three league games, and Infogol’s model backs David Moyes’ men to claim the victory they need to keep hold of fourth place while waiting for rivals to play games in hand.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Spurs to sneak important derby victory
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30
Spurs are in much better shape than they were when they lost at Arsenal earlier in the season, despite suffering a midweek Carabao Cup exit, and Antonio Conte’s side are expected to have a slight edge against their neighbours. Arsenal have been much less convincing away than at home, averaging 1.89 xGA per game compared to 1.10 at the Emirates Stadium, and Infogol expects the hosts to take advantage.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2
Source: Betfair Premier League
