Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as all 20 teams return to action…
“Manchester United haven’t played a competitive game since March 15, and Ralf Rangnick’s side will hope to be well-rested as they host a Leicester side who handed them a 4-2 defeat several months ago.”
Liverpool to keep marching on
Liverpool v Watford
Saturday, 12:30
Liverpool’s away hammering of Watford in October came with an xGF of 2.95 for Jürgen Klopp’s side, and even the return of former Reds boss Roy Hodgson to Vicarage Road looks unlikely to help the Hornets. The hosts have the league’s best xGF average – home or away – and Infogol’s model backs them to make light work of their relegation-threatened opponents at Anfield.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 4-0 @ 9.008/1
Brighton to emerge from slump with victory
Brighton & Hove Albion v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00
The two sides at the bottom of the form table meet at the Amex Stadium, and home advantage might be enough to give Graham Potter’s the side against bottom-of-the-table Norwich. The visitors are averaging just 0.85 xGF per game on their travels, and Infogol expects the Seagulls
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 7.807/1
Man City to deal Burnley another blow
Burnley v Manchester City
Saturday, 15:00
Burnley have lost their last three league games, failing to score in the process, and are in danger of being cast adrift in the bottom three. They won’t be best pleased to be up against league leaders City, who comfortably won the reverse fixture and are averaging a frankly terrifying 2.38 xGF per game on the road. While the visitors have to contend with fallout from the international break, Infogol still expects them to win.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 8.207/1
Chelsea to claim derby spoils
Chelsea v Brentford
Saturday, 15:00
Chelsea rode their luck in the reverse fixture against Brentford, but still ended up with all three points. Infogol suggests the Stamford Bridge meeting will be a little more straightforward for Thomas Tuchel’s side, with the visitors’ 1.77 xGA average perhaps playing a part, and three points for the Blues can help them cement their top-four status going into the last few games.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2
Leeds to earn third straight victory
Leeds United v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00
After two huge wins, with a 3.15 xGF average in the process, Leeds have a chance to take another big step towards Premier League safety. Jesse Marsch’s side are narrow favourites against Southampton, according to Infogol’s model, but the visitors haven’t won in a full month and Ralph Hasenhüttl is expected to lose out in the battle between two former RB Leipzig managers.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Villa to sneak a win at Molineux
Wolverhampton Wanderers v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00
Wolves will go into Saturday’s game without Raúl Jiménez after the forward’s red card last time out, and they could find things tough against an increasingly solid Villa defence. Steven Gerrard’s side are coming off successive defeats, but both were narrow, and the Villans will know these are the kinds of game they need to win if they want to secure a top-half finish this season.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 15.0014/1
Man Utd to rebound after long break
Manchester United v Leicester City
Saturday, 17:30
Manchester United haven’t played a competitive game since March 15, and Ralf Rangnick’s side will hope to be well-rested as they host a Leicester side who handed them a 4-2 defeat several months ago. Brendan Rodgers’ Foxes are averaging a worrying 2.09 xGA on their travels, while a number of injury concerns could leave them with an uphill battle at Old Trafford.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
West Ham to scrape win against Everton
West Ham United v Everton
Sunday, 14:00
Neither West Ham nor Everton have been in the best of form lately, but the visitors’ dismal away form could end up holding them back at Frank Lampard takes on the club where he began his playing career. Lampard’s Toffees have fewer away league points than anyone else in the Premier League, averaging 1.99 xGA per game, and West Ham have the goods to take advantage.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Spurs to complete double over Newcastle
Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United
Sunday, 16:30
Newcastle lost at home to Tottenham in their first post-takeover game back in October, since when both sides have improved under new managers. Antonio Conte’s hosts are finally beginning to kick into gear, winning four of their last five league games with a 2.29 xGF average, and that could be too much for a Magpies side who have still probably done enough to make survival a formality.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Arsenal to stay fourth with away win
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
Monday, 20:00
Arsenal are likely to have seen the pressure on them ramped up by the time they kick off on Monday night, with the top four race tightening and tightening. Things won’t be easy for them against Crystal Palace, with the Gunners needing a late equaliser in the reverse fixture, but Infogol’s model still backs them to produce the goods at Selhurst Park and stay in control of their fate.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 10.009/1 or 1-2 @ 10.009/1
Source: Betfair Premier League
