Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions with the title-chasers in midweek action…
“Liverpool kept their quadruple dreams alive with a win over Manchester City on Saturday in their FA Cup semi-final, and now it’s back to the league.”
Liverpool to pass Man Utd test
Liverpool v Manchester United
Tuesday, 20:00
Liverpool kept their quadruple dreams alive with a win over Manchester City on Saturday in their FA Cup semi-final, and now it’s back to the league. A lot has changed since the Reds dominated at Old Trafford in a 5-0 victory, but Infogol’s model still doesn’t foresee too much trouble for Jürgen Klopp’s side as they aim to put their 2.97 home xGF average to good use.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2
Chelsea to further dent Arsenal’s top four hopes
Chelsea v Arsenal
Wednesday, 19:45
Arsenal have averaged 1.85 xGF across their last three games but lost all three, with Southampton goalkeeper Fraser Forster impressing for the opposition in the last of the trio. The fixture list isn’t getting any easier, and the Gunners’ extra day of rest against Chelsea might not be enough as they visit a side averaging 2.01 xGF across 14 league games at Stamford Bridge this season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Everton to secure priceless home win
Everton v Leicester City
Wednesday, 19:45
Everton’s home form has kept them in pole position for survival, with seven of their eight wins this season coming at Goodison Park, and a Leicester side averaging 1.89 xGA away from home may well be forthcoming. Last season’s corresponding fixture ended all-square, with the now-departed James Rodríguez on target for the hosts, but Infogol gives Everton a narrow edge this time around.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2
Palace to recover after cup disappointment
Newcastle United v Crystal Palace
Wednesday, 19:45
These two had mixed fortunes over the weekend, with Newcastle securing a last-gasp league win which should keep them up and Palace losing to Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final. Patrick Vieira’s side have averaged 2.10 xGF across their last two away league games, and as long as they can put the cup exit behind them they can stay ahead of a Magpies side who are level with them on 37 points.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 6.4011/2 or 1-2 @ 13.0012/1
City to stop Brighton’s winning run
Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Wednesday, 20:00
Brighton extended their unbeaten run to three on Saturday with a 1-0 win at Tottenham, which was impressive for the way they kept their free-scoring opponents quiet. A trip to the Etihad Stadium will be an even bigger test, though, and the hosts’ 0.73 xGA average on home soil will make it tough for the Seagulls to get anything from a third away game on the spin.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.6013/2
Burnley’s survival bid to hit a roadblock
Burnley v Southampton
Thursday, 19:45
Burnley will rue their missed chances against West Ham on Sunday, not least the penalty squandered by Maxwel Cornet, though the opposition had the better chances over the course of 90 minutes. That draw means Thursday’s meeting with Southampton gains even more weight as the managerless Clarets aim to keep themselves afloat, and Infogol’s model gives the visitors a narrow edge after their own weekend victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.0010/1
Source: Betfair Premier League
