Premier League xG Tips: Leeds and Everton to fall short in Gameweek 35

“Leeds United’s trip to the Etihad Stadium in December saw them concede seven times, and the quality of City’s attacking play against Watford last weekend may worry Jesse Marsch.”

Newcastle’s winning run to end

Newcastle United v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30

Two of the Premier League’s most in-form teams meet at St James’ Park in one of the trickier games in Liverpool’s run-in. Newcastle have one their last four, averaging just 0.60 xGA per game, but Infogol expects their high-flying opponents to gain the upper hand with a season-long average of 2.34 xGF per away game boding well for Jürgen Klopp’s visitors.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Norwich to suffer defeat which could relegate them

Aston Villa v Norwich City
Saturday, 15:00

If Norwich lose on Saturday and Burnley win at the same time, Dean Smith will be in the unfortunate position of suffering relegation at the home of his former club. Neither side is in the best of form, but Villa’s underlying numbers have been far healthier than their points suggest and they can get a long-overdue win against opponents averaging 2.41 xGA per game on the road.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 10.5019/2

Palace to leapfrog Southampton with away win

Southampton v Crystal Palace
Saturday, 15:00

Infogol’s model can’t find much to choose between these two sides, which is perhaps understandable given they’re separated by just one place and two points. The reverse fixture ended all square, with Jordan Ayew delivering a second-half equaliser, but Palace are backed to have the edge this time after they were unlucky not to win against Leeds United on Monday night.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 11.5021/2

Watford and Burnley too close to call

Watford v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

It’s rare to see two teams given an identical chance of victory on Infogol’s model, but that’s the case as two of the bottom four meet at Vicarage Road. Burnley have shown notable improvement under Mike Jackson, especially at home, but things might be different as they travel to face a Hornets side fighting for their lives and knowing defeat would likely send them down.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2 or 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Brighton to close in on Wolves

Wolverhampton Wanderers v Brighton & Hove Albion
Saturday, 15:00

Successive defeats for Wolves have left them with an uphill battle in the chase for a European spot, but they still have a gap to the teams below them. The problem for Bruno Lage’s side comes in front of goal, where their 1.31 home xGF average is among the worst in the league, and Infogol’s model backs Brighton to pile on more misery after their recent away wins at Arsenal and Spurs.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-2 @ 14.50

Leeds to cause City few problems

Leeds United v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

Leeds United’s trip to the Etihad Stadium in December saw them concede seven times, and the quality of City’s attacking play against Watford last weekend may worry Jesse Marsch. The hosts are at least coming off successive clean sheets, but Infogol doesn’t expect the league leaders to find things too tough at Elland Road as they aim to move closer to wrapping up the title.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Chelsea to leave Everton in dire straits

Everton v Chelsea
Sunday, 14:00

If Everton are to keep themselves in the Premier League, they’ll need to pick up points at home, but that won’t be easy against a Chelsea side whose last three away games in all competitions have seen them average a massive 3.21 xGF. Frank Lampard has the advantage of knowing some of his opponents’ squad, but Infogol doesn’t expect this to be enough against a team on the verge of confirming their top four finish.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.809/1

Spurs to earn first win in three

Tottenham Hotspur v Leicester City
Sunday, 14:00

Back-to-back shutouts have seen Spurs fall out of the top four, but they can get back on track against a Leicester side with European semi-final responsibilities either side of their trip to London. The Foxes are averaging 2.03 xGA on their travels, one of the league’s worst returns, and Antonio Conte’s hosts should have more than enough to get the better of their opponents on Sunday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Arsenal to cling on to fourth spot

West Ham United v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30

Arsenal, like their neighbours Spurs, face opponents with European commitments to contend with. The Gunners will also take on a West Ham side without a single senior centre-back thanks to Craig Dawson’s suspension, and Infogol’s model backs Mikel Arteta;’s side to come out on top in this derby to complete the double over a team they kept very quiet in the reverse fixture.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Man Utd to return to winning ways

Manchester United v Brentford
Monday, 20:00

After successive defeats all but ended Manchester United’s hopes of a top four finish, they can at least make a run at Europa League qualification by beating Brentford. Victory would represent a league double over the Bees, but Thomas Frank’s side will be no pushovers after going unbeaten across their last four league outings with a healthy average of 1.97 xGF.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1