Premier League xG Tips: Leeds and Everton nerves to increase in gameweek 27

“Three straight league defeats with a 3.26 xGA average will worry Leeds, who are by no means safe from the drop after other teams picked up results below them.”

Southampton to keep up solid home form

Southampton v Norwich City
Friday, 20:00

Southampton have quietly built up a home record of just one defeat in 12, and they should have the goods to extend it against a Norwich side struggling to create on the road. The Canaries’ opener at Liverpool last weekend was just their seventh goal in 12 away games – with the underlying numbers not showing much better – and Infogol anticipates a third straight defeat for Dean Smith’s side.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Spurs to win at Elland Road

Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 12:30

Three straight league defeats with a 3.26 xGA average will worry Leeds, who are by no means safe from the drop after other teams picked up results below them. Spurs’ win at Manchester City showed Antonio Conte’s team haven’t given up on fourth, though defeat at Burnley won’t help, and Infogol’s model backs the London side to return to the capital with all three points against the team who gave Conte his first Premier League win as Spurs boss.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Brentford to shake up relegation battle

Brentford v Newcastle United
Saturday, 15:00

Defeat for Brentford against Newcastle would see the visitors overtake them, but the Bees’ underlying numbers at home have remained solid even if the results have tailed off. The reverse fixture in November ended as a six-goal thriller in Eddie Howe’s first game in charge at St James’ Park, but Thomas Frank should consider his team capable of claiming a huge victory on Saturday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.0010/1

Villa to suffer fourth winless game

Brighton & Hove Albion v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00

The wheels have begun to come off for Steven Gerrard at Villa Park, and while his team remain nine points above the drop zone, they might start to worry if they suffer a third straight defeat this weekend. Hosts Brighton are also out of form, losing their last two without scoring, and victory in this one may well go to whichever side is able to score the first goal of the afternoon.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 13.0012/1

Palace to earn second straight win

Crystal Palace v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00

After a difficult run since the turn of the year, Palace picked up an important three points at Watford in midweek. Opponents Burnley were also victorious on Wednesday, keeping their survival hopes alive in the process, but this one is expected to go the way of Patrick Vieira’s side

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.009/1 or 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Man Utd to win third on the spin

Manchester United v Watford
Saturday, 15:00

Man Utd’s defeat at Watford in November cost Ole Gunnar Solskjaer his job, but victory in the reverse fixture can go some way to showing the Red Devils were right to cut ties when they did. Watford’s away xGA average is far from the worst in the Premier League, but United’s 2.24 xGF average across their last four games points to a likely home win.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

City to hand Lampard first home loss

Everton v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30

Everton have impressed at Goodison Park since Frank Lampard’s arrival, but Infogol’s model doesn’t expect them to do neighbours Liverpool any favours on Saturday. Visitors Manchester City remain in pole position despite last week’s loss to Spurs, and their 0.82 xGA average on the road is matched by them boasting the joint-stingiest Premier League away defence in real terms.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

West Ham to return to winning ways

West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 14:00

West Ham lost more ground in the battle for Europe last weekend, and failure to beat Wolves on Sunday could see that trend continue. The Hammers won the corresponding game 4-0 last season, but Bruno Lage’s side are a different prospect to Nuno’s last term and this is set to be a tighter contest, even if Infogol does see the game going the way of the east London side.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2