Using Expected Goals (xG) data from Infogol, Tom Victor provides Premier League result and scoreline predictions as strugglers aim to move towards safety…
“Brentford’s three points at Norwich last week was a real help in their battle to avoid the drop, and they can take another huge step towards safety by beating relegation rivals Burnley.”
Liverpool to put earlier Brighton annoyance behind them
Brighton & Hove Albion v Liverpool
Saturday, 12:30
Liverpool’s home draw with Brighton in October was one of their more frustrating afternoons this season, but Jürgen Klopp’s side can move on from that disappointment by winning at the Amex Stadium. The Reds’ 2.52 xGF away record is the best in the league, and Infogol’s model suggests Brighton’s run of four straight defeats is unlikely to stop there.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1
Brentford to earn second straight win
Brentford v Burnley
Saturday, 15:00
Brentford’s three points at Norwich last week was a real help in their battle to avoid the drop, and they can take another huge step towards safety by beating relegation rivals Burnley. Sean Dyche’s visitors have lost their last two at home, averaging 1.97 xGA in the process, and an away average of just 0.82 xGF on their travels will give their opponents hope of an important victory.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 10.5019/2 or 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Man Utd to record first win in four
Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 17:30
Manchester United’s derby defeat last weekend saw them drop out of the top four, and they could lose further ground in the Champions League battle if they lose to Spurs. Both teams had different managers in the dugout when Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s United beat Nuno’s Tottenham in October, but Infogol expects Ralf Rangnick to lead his team to a similar result when he takes on Antonio Conte.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Chelsea to bring Newcastle back to earth
Chelsea v Newcastle United
Sunday, 14:00
Last weekend’s victory over Brighton helped life Newcastle seven points clear of the drop zone, but their 1.03 xGF away average is unlikely to be enough against a Chelsea team who looked back to their best against Burnley. Infogol’s model backs Thomas Tuchel’s side to keep themselves clear of the chasing pack as they aim to avoid leaving Champions League qualification as late as last season.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1
Everton to claim huge win in survival fight
Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Sunday, 14:00
An average of 0.89 xGF saw Wolves go empty-handed against Crystal Palace and West Ham, and Everton will hope to take advantage of opponents who have hugely underperformed their xG this season. Frank Lampard’s side were woeful on Monday against Tottenham, offering next to nothing in attack, but the Toffees will hope Dominic Calvert-Lewin is sharper with minutes under his belt.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 11.5021/2 or 2-1 @ 11.0010/1
Leeds to pick up important win
Leeds United v Norwich City
Sunday, 14:00
Norwich’s defeat against Brentford was a huge blow for their survival hopes, and Leeds will aim to smell blood and take advantage. Dean Smith’s Canaries are averaging an alarming 2.39 xGA away from Carrow Road, and Infogol expects them to taste defeat once more against a team who beat them 2-1 in the reverse fixture before the turn of the year.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1
Southampton to shoot down Watford
Southampton v Watford
Sunday, 14:00
Southampton and Watford will both go into this game off the back of midweek catch-up games, and both will be pushing for points on Sunday for different reasons. In Watford’s case, survival is the key, with Roy Hodgson running out of games to pull his side out of the bottom three. The reverse fixture could have gone either way but ultimately went Southampton’s way, and Infogol’s model anticipates a repeat.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1
West Ham to cling to chances of Europe
West Ham United v Aston Villa
Sunday, 14:00
After elimination from the FA Cup, West Ham will hope to regain some ground domestically by completing a double over a Villa side whose defeat in the reverse fixture played a part in Dean Smith’s sacking. A narrow offside decision separated the sides in last season’s corresponding game, with Ollie Watkins denied, but Infogol’s model backs West Ham to continue their unbeaten streak in this fixture since Villa were promoted in 2019.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1
Arsenal to complete double over resurgent Leicester
Arsenal v Leicester City
Sunday, 16:30
A 1.97 xGA average continues to hamper Leicester, and their recent uptick has owed as much to Kasper Schmeichel’s form as it has to any wider defensive solidity. Brendan Rodgers’ side are likely to find it tough against an Arsenal side who beat them at the King Power Stadium, and the Gunners’ four-game winning streak means their top four fate lies firmly in their own hands.
BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1
City to take revenge on Palace
Crystal Palace v Manchester City
Monday, 20:00
Manchester City’s home defeat against Crystal Palace earlier in the season was a rare blip, with Pep Guardiola’s side averaging a whopping 2.46 xGF home and away this season. Some impressive defensive numbers on the road mean Patrick Vieira’s hosts will find it tough to get past Ederson, and Infogol’s model backs the league leaders to cruise to victory at Selhurst Park.
BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 0-3 @ 9.6017/2
Source: Betfair Premier League
