Premier League xG Tips: Arsenal and Spurs to face tests in Gameweek 36

“Spurs are the highest-ranked opponents who Liverpool still have to face, and the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture can serve as a warning for Jürgen Klopp’s side.”

Brentford to preserve top half hopes

Brentford v Southampton
Saturday, 15:00

Two teams locked on 40 points will face off at the Brentford Community Stadium, with Thomas Frank’s side looking to build on an impressive 1.04 xGA home record. Southampton won comfortably in the reverse fixture, hitting four goals at St Mary’s, but Infogol’s model backs the Bees to gain some revenge for that defeat on Saturday.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Burnley’s survival bid to suffer a blow

Burnley v Aston Villa
Saturday, 15:00

A third successive win last weekend saw Burnley boost their hopes of Premier League survival, but things could be tougher for Mike Jackson’s men against Aston Villa. The visitors eased their own faint relegation worries by beating Norwich last time out, and can set their sights on the top half with a win, though Infogol can find little to separate the teams at Turf Moor.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-1 @ 7.006/1 or 1-2 @ 11.0010/1

Chelsea to hand Wolves fourth straight loss

Chelsea v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Saturday, 15:00

Wolves’ average of just 0.54 xGF across their last three games has seen them suffer three successive defeats without scoring a single goal. The run has harmed Bruno Lage’s team’s European hopes, and Infogol’s model backs Chelsea – themselves not in the best of form – to use a 1.97 xGF home average to their advantage and all but guarantee a top four finish.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2

Palace to make Watford’s relegation official

Crystal Palace v Watford
Saturday, 19:00

Nothing but four wins from four would keep Watford alive, and even that would likely not be enough. Roy Hodgson’s side are up against their manager’s old employers at Selhurst Park, with Palace having scored twice in each half to win the reverse fixture, and Infogol’s model makes the Eagles firm favourites as they look to complete a double over their opponents.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-0 @ 8.4015/2

Brighton to end Man Utd’s top four hopes

Brighton & Hove Albion v Manchester United
Saturday, 17:30

With Arsenal and Tottenham still due to face each other, Man Utd’s top four hopes are almost non-existent. A 1.87 away xGA combined with back-to-back road games to close out the season means it would take a miracle to catch the teams above them, and Infogol’s model backs Brighton to deal the Red Devils another away defeat and make another year without Champions League football official.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 11.5021/2

Liverpool to squeak past Spurs

Liverpool v Tottenham Hotspur
Saturday, 19:45

Spurs are the highest-ranked opponents who Liverpool still have to face, and the 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture can serve as a warning for Jürgen Klopp’s side. That said, no Premier League side has a better home xGF average than the Reds’ 2.85, and Infogol’s model expects them to have what it takes to claim the win and put the pressure back on league leaders Manchester City.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Arsenal to keep Leeds in trouble

Arsenal v Leeds United
Sunday, 14:00

Leeds’ unbeaten run came to an end against Manchester City last time out, with wins for both Burnley and Everton meaning things once again look worrying for Jesse Marsch’s team. The Whites have averaged 2.02 xGA per game on the road, and this could be a problem as they take on an Arsenal side who don’t tend to give much up against anyone at the Emirates Stadium.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

Everton’s away misery to continue

Leicester City v Everton
Sunday, 14:00

Leicester will either be on a big high or a big low when they kick off, with a European semi-final in Rome coming three days earlier, but Infogol still expects them to overcome an Everton side who needed a late equaliser in the reverse fixture. Frank Lampard’s side still have the league’s worst away points record, with their underlying numbers not much better, and their survival will likely rest with their home form.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 10.5019/2

West Ham to end winless run

Norwich City v West Ham United
Sunday, 14:00

West Ham’s European exertions have hit their league form, with just four points picked up in their last six games, but they can turn things around against relegated Norwich. The Canaries have just 12 points at home, with a league-low return of 1.02 xGF, and Infogol’s model backs David Moyes’ visitors to pick up their first away Premier League victory since back on New Year’s Day.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.208/1

Man City to pass Newcastle test

Manchester City v Newcastle United
Sunday, 16:30

After keeping Liverpool to one goal last time out, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle could still influence the title race if they’re able to pull off a surprise at the Etihad Stadium. City’s 0.68 home xGA average has been even lower over the last two game games, and they’re expected to shut out opponents whose own improvement hasn’t been enough to lift them above a 1.00 xGF average on the road.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Under
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 7.6013/2