Premier League: Why Hodgson can save Watford

“The players might not enjoy the repetitive training, or the focus on defending above all else, but if results start to turn then having a likeable and communicative manager in charge should bring the squad together.”

Watford’s appointment of Roy Hodgson has taken everybody by surprise. The former England manager appeared to retire when leaving Crystal Palace last summer, or at least step down to a less demanding advisory role, and yet he replaces Claudio Ranieri this week to take on one of his toughest jobs.

Ranieri won just two of his 14 games in charge in a hapless tenure that was devoid of any meaningful work and ended, after a run of eight defeats from nine, with a humiliating 3-0 drubbing by Norwich City.

Whipping this team into shape will not be easy, but considering Hodgson’s past successes at relegation-threatened clubs he might turn out to be a very astute appointment. There are some similarities between Watford’s current plight and Fulham in December 2007, when Hodgson took over a side 18th in the table with only two wins all season.

Hodgson, of course, went on to turn Fulham into a top-half club and took them to the Europa League final. His time at Watford will be much shorter and less dramatic, but nevertheless his success at Craven Cottage, along with more recent transformations at Crystal Palace and West Brom, give Watford fans cause for optimism.

Here’s why he might keep them up:

Defensive organisation is what Watford need

Hodgson is very much a defensive coach. Throughout his long career in management the 74-year-old has started by spending hours and hours on the training field drilling defensive positioning, with the basic idea to sit very deep in two banks of four and shuffle across, denying space around the penalty area.

Although historically it has taken eight or nine games for things to click – time Watford don’t have – this is, at least, the area Watford most need focus. They were horrendously leaky under Ranieri, playing in an almost random order as opponents easily poked holes in a decompressed shape that betrayed the Italian’s lack of tactical detail.

The Watford players will already have experienced a culture shock on day one. Hodgson, along with his assistant Ray Lewington, will demand defensive perfection until their movements are etched in muscle memory.

Hodgson’s tactics emulate Xisco effort

An old-fashioned tactical model will be used to get Watford out of trouble. Hodgson always deploys a flat 4-4-2 formation that begins with that deep shape, conceding possession and luring the opponent forward, and looks to counter-attack with direct and long-ball football utilising a target man and quick wingers.

Watford have the right balance in their squad to play in this way, as was hinted at in the final few games under Xisco Munoz. Having begun the campaign in a more expansive shape, the Spaniard was in the middle of transitioning towards a more humble structure when the Pozzo family pulled the trigger; he was unlucky to be sacked with the Hornets on seven points from seven games.

We were just starting to see green shoots from the change in strategy, with Emmanuel Dennis and Ismaila Sarr operating as traditional wingers using their dribbling skills to carry Watford forward on the break. The owners might have been troubled by the low possession stats they were posting, but it was all part of the plan.

And it will be the plan again under Hodgson. He will revel in using Josh King as a target man to hold up the ball, and will no doubt get the best out of Sarr, Dennis, Joao Pedro, and Ken Sema – a group of tricky wingers who will benefit from simplified roles under Hodgson.

Hands-on approach could revive key players

Anyone who has played under Hodgson says he is a good motivator, open and honest with his players, and works very hard in all departments; he is a hands-on coach with an open mind towards modern methods, working closely with data analysts to find an edge.

In other words, he does not arrive at Vicarage Road for the pay packet, and he will not sit back as Ranieri did. This attention to detail should help to revive a dressing room that has reportedly become a little toxic, with Dennis in particular accused of not playing for the team as he suffers a spell of poor form.

The players might not enjoy the repetitive training, or the focus on defending above all else, but if results start to turn then having a likeable and communicative manager in charge should bring the squad together.

Kind fixture list should help Hodgson

Hodgson only won one of his first eight games at Crystal Palace and one of his first ten at Fulham, in keeping wth his usual habit of slow starts (with the notable exception of West Brom, where he won his first three in the Premier League). Watford fans might be worried about this, but a nice run of fixtures makes a new-manager bounce more likely.

He begins with a trip to Burnley while everyone else is occupied with the FA Cup, offering the chance to move immediately out of the relegation zone and give everyone at the club a boost. Watford then play West Ham (a), Brighton (h), and Aston Villa (a), avoiding the ‘Big Six’ until Hodgson has had four weeks at the helm.

Better still, Watford still have Everton, Leeds, Brentford, and Burnley to come to Vicarage Road, with Arsenal the only ‘Big Six’ home tie remaining. There is ample opportunity to pick up the wins they need to make Hodgson’s appointment a success.