Ste Tudor looks at where the goals, assists and three points will likely come from in the Premier League this week.
If the Magpies somehow navigate a famous victory at St James Park this Saturday lunchtime – severely denting Liverpool’s title hopes in the process – it will be the first time they’ve managed to win six home games on the bounce for nearly two decades.
Finding themselves 90 minutes away from such a feat is testament to the remarkable transformation that has occurred in the North-East following the appointment of Eddie Howe and a successful transfer window.
Coming up against a ferocious Liverpool however, with the scent of a quadruple burning in their nostrils, may well be a reality check.
Examples of the Reds’ attacking merits are numerous but it’s how their relentless pressure is currently translating to a high corner count that interests us most here.
Across the season, Klopp’s men have averaged 7.5 corners per Premier League game, a lofty figure itself. In their last three competitive fixtures that has risen to 10.6 per game.
Aston Villa v Norwich (Saturday, 15:00) – A final fling?
If Norwich lose and Burnley win, then the Canaries are down and that has to be a big consideration because routinely we see doomed teams pull off a final act of defiance in such circumstances. It’s a staving off the inevitable for one more week; a hinting at what could have been even if, brutally speaking, it amounts to a death-rattle.
Do Dean Smith’s side have the wherewithal to go down fighting in such a manner? The most obvious place to start when looking for positives is Teemu Pukki, a player who has scored 45.5% of their goals this term. Granted, the Finnish finisher doesn’t travel particularly well, scoring all-but-three of his total on the familiar soil of Carrow Road. But this is potentially an exceptional weekend for both he and his sentenced side.
Southampton v Crystal Palace (Saturday, 15:00) – A long-shot at glory
Palace have a poor record at Southampton, winning only once on the south coast in the Premier League era, but that figure might double this weekend, coming up against an ineffectual forward-line who are about as menacing as a basketful of puppies.
That Ralph Hasenhuttl has recently felt the need to turn to Shane Long – a striker who has scored three times in his last 30 hours of league action – is proof enough that desperate measures are deemed necessary. The last occasion an attacker notched for the Saints was six weeks ago while all told this season Southampton have a 6.6 chance conversion rate, a pitiful return.
Palace may be coming into this on the back of some disappointing results but their back-line remains well-drilled and stubborn. Up front meanwhile, they possess an array of ballers who can be the difference.
Watford v Burnley (Saturday, 15:00) – Hornets quickly stung
As if staring down relegation’s barrel wasn’t bad enough for the spiralling Hornets, they also face the ignominy of becoming the first ever top-flight side to lose 11 home games in a row should they succumb to Burnley.
Of course, that unwanted record pales to the infinitely greater threat of swiftly returning to the Championship which will surely happen – barring a quite ludicrous turn of events – should they once more be bettered this Saturday. And sadly, that appears to be the likeliest outcome.
Since caretaker boss Michael Jackson has taken on the reins, the Clarets are no longer bad, significantly increasing their shot stats and impressively sharing around the goals. Nine different players have converted their last ten.
Furthermore, a 12th minute curler by Connor Roberts recently continued a season-long habit of getting off the mark early. No other side has a higher percentage of goals scored inside 15 minutes.
Wolves v Brighton (Saturday, 15:00) – Monotony at Molineux
The suspended Yves Bissouma is a big miss for the Seagulls while their flying wing-back Tariq Lamptey is touch and go to start.
Those concerns aside, Brighton have genuine causes for encouragement heading up to the Black Country, with recent results suggesting their dramatic slump mid-Feb to mid-March is now put to bed. And still, they boast an impressive away record, losing only four times this term on the road.
Wolves meanwhile are showing signs of stagnation, not that they were especially prolific at the best of times. No other Premier League ground has seen fewer goals than Molineux in 2021/22 while a remarkable 66.6% of their fixtures have ended with a single-goal margin, in their favour or otherwise.
Bruno Lage’s wary Wanderers have scored exactly one goal per game on average and conceded 0.8.
Leeds v Man City (Saturday, 17:30) – Same cast, different story
Anyone who scoffs at the notion that a season is a marathon, not a sprint, need only contrast City’s all-too-comfortable seven-goal dismantling of Leeds at the Etihad last December to the circumstances of this corresponding tie.
The hosts are a very different proposition now under Jesse Marsch, unbeaten in five and having not conceded for 221 minutes. Pep Guardiola’s artisans meanwhile will gratefully take the scruffiest of wins from the scruffiest of performances all day long with Real Madrid lying in wait on Wednesday.
City’s Champions League commitments may well determine team selection here, with Jack Grealish expected to start over the in-form Jesus and some end-product is overdue. The Blues’ £100m man hasn’t scored or assisted since that all-too-comfortable pummelling of Leeds’ sorry former selves.
Everton v Chelsea (Sunday, 14:00) – Noise is not the solution
Chelsea may have emitted a loud hiccup or two on home soil lately but on their travels they remain a formidable prospect, only losing once away from the Bridge in 2022 and that a tight affair at Manchester City. The return of Reece James improves them while Mason Mount is in scintillating form.
As for the Toffees, they were always going to lean heavily into Goodison’s roar and the best attributes of Richarlison in their survival bid and so far both have come to the fore. Yet still it doesn’t feel enough.
We can expect a frenetic first 45 minutes on Merseyside this Sunday. Scrappy too. Sadly though for Lampard’s battling troops, quality might ultimately tell.
Tottenham v Leicester (Sunday, 14:00) – Chances few and far between
The treatment room at the King Power has never been so quiet and with almost all of his key personnel – Ndidi aside – back in contention, Brendan Rodger’s side travel to North London on the cusp of finding some form. In this regard, averaging a single-goal concession per game in their last six is a promising start.
At the other end, the Foxes have been relatively shot-shy of late and naturally it will take time for Vardy and co to sharpen their claws. As for Spurs, the last time they managed a shot on target was against Aston Villa in early April.
As tempting as it is to plump for an away win, each side’s impotence in front of goal cannot be ignored and a low shot-count should be focused on, that and for Tottenham’s struggles to persist.
West Ham v Arsenal (Sunday, 16:30) – Capital gain
The Hammers have clearly been distracted by their European adventures, evidenced by just a brace of league wins since reaching the Europa knock-outs. It feels a touch incongruous therefore to point out that throughout this time David Moyes’ side have accumulated their longest unbeaten streak at home since 2016.
Crucially, they also have a handy knack of scoring at the London Stadium, last failing to do so way back in May of last year. Countering this, no other side have beaten them more in the Premier League than the Gunners.
Arsenal are in rude health right now and should be fancied to prevail here. They’ve fired seven in their last two and their cast of young attacking talent will relish facing a back-line deprived of Craig Dawson and Kurt Zouma.
Man United v Brentford (Monday, 20:00) – One man club
Cristiano Ronaldo has scored eight of United’s last nine league goals. Had the Portuguese megastar not been available for the Reds’ past few games they would currently be eighth and getting chased down by Newcastle.
Of course, that is skewed logic because someone else would have surely stepped up instead and made a difference? Wouldn’t they?
It’s hard to think who though. The form of Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford is shot to pieces. Elanga is still a kid learning on the job. Elsewhere, a raft of injuries and absences means United once more go into the breach overly reliant on a player who is averaging a goal involvement every 113 minutes in the league this season. A 37-year-old who is somehow fending off the aging process and a full-on club crisis.
The Bees will fancy their chances at Old Trafford. Unbeaten across April they’ve been inspired by Christian Eriksen and fired by Ivan Toney but for value look beyond the 12-goal man to exploit their hosts’ many problems.
Source: Betfair Premier League
